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2016 Natsu Pre-basho Report
So I was watching this documentary on NHK awhile back
where they were talking about the most efficient angle for a guy to stand up and
pee to create the fewest splatter spots around the toilet. Some people go
straight for the water, and others go at the side of the bowl, and so they had a
dude (dressed in a white lab coat of course) standing there with this big
syringe full of dark blue dye, and he would squirt the dye into the toilet at
various angles simulating a guy going pee. With each shot from the syringe, a
crew of young people--probably college kids hired for the job--would rush in and
count every single splatter spot on the side of the toilet bowl, on the seat,
and on the floor surrounding the toilet. In some cases, these people were
reporting upwards of 7,000+ splatter spots from a single pee. 7,000!! I mean,
how can you tell that you've already counted one splatter spot vs. another right
next to it when there are thousands there on the floor and the inside of the
toilet bowl?? As I was watching this, I thought to myself "only in Japan," but
here's the point of the story. Japan is such a trivia hungry country, and they
can come up with the most useless stats and figures imaginable (like pee
splatter spots), and yet not a single media outlet put two and two together to
figure out that Sekiwake Kotoyuki's jo'i debut was better than every single
Yokozuna's jo'i debut in the last four decades of sumo...and maybe longer...I
just got tired of going back that far to count.
Seriously, the country should be going apeshit over this guy for pulling off
such a feat, but there's been hardly a peep about him. I've read where he has
been struggling a bit with asthma, but other than that, there hasn't been much
written about him since they released the banzuke and he was officially ranked
at Sekiwake. That the media isn't going bonkers to me suggests that Kotoyuki's
12-3 run last basho was bought and paid for by his stable for who knows what
reason. I don't think the media quite knows what to expect here, and so they're
staying low key with Kotoyuki...as they should. Regardless of why he went 12-3
last basho, everyone knows that it was due to serious yaocho, and so that's why
nobody can hype the dude for reals. He shoulda gotten his ass kicked in March,
and he should get it kicked here in May, but who knows what's going to happen? I
think if all sumo was fought legitimately and this dude was ranked at Sekiwake,
he'd be around a 3-4 win guy.
Same goes for his cohort, Ikioi, who also finds himself ranked at Sekiwake this
basho after he was bolstered in front of the Osaka fans with plenty of yaocho.
Flip a coin with these two and either way it lands, they're only 3-4 win guys at
best. Oh wait, if all bouts were fought straight up, they'd storm through the
Three Amigos, so it'd be more like six-win guys on this banzuke. Before we leave
the Sekiwake ranks, Kotoyuki was apparently warned by the judging committee that
his little "Hoh!" routine where he hocks a loogie into his first right before
his final crouch was unbecoming of a rikishi. We'll see if he disses the judges
in the same manner he dissed Hakuho.
Kaisei generated a small amount of buzz with the release of the banzuke that saw
him promoted to the sanyaku for the first time. I just laughed when I saw the
breaking news of "Kaisei becomes the first Brasilian Komusubi in
history!!" As if we've had other Brasilian rikishi hanging around. Kaisei is
also the slowest Brasilian rikishi to reach Komusubi in history; he's also the
fastest Brasilian to reach Komusubi in history; and he's also got the hairiest
shoulders of any Brasilian Komusubi in history. I really like this guy and what
the Sumo Association wouldn't give to have a Japanese rikishi with the same
tools as Kaisei. You unfortunately won't get to see them every day of course
since Kaisei will be asked to roll over for his Japanese opponents. Across the
aisle is Okinoumi, a guy who just seems to be...there.
Two of Japan's top five guys occupy the M1 ranks in Myogiryu and Takarafuji. The
big question is how many of the Japanese Ozeki will they be obligated to lose
to?
Shodai checks in at M2, his highest ever rank on the banzuke. I have no idea
what to expect from the kid, and if he starts soundly beating any of the foreign
rikishi he faces, you'll know that the fix is in. Said foreign rikishi are guys
like M2 Ichinojo, M3 Aoiyama, M4 Tochinoshin, and the aforementioned Kaisei. And
that's just from the Maegashira ranks. The M2 rank means he'll fight all of the
Mongolians as well, and frankly, he's been handled with such kid gloves up to
this point that he is not prepared for the jo'i. Doesn't mean he won't win
eight, however. We'll just have to see how they want to spread around the
ill-gotten wins. Look, in the case of Shodai, he may be all that. What I'm
saying is that I've seen too many bouts thrown in his favor to really be able to
assess him. When I get excited about a guy or I see potential in a guy (like
Kotoyuki recently and Chiyotairyu before that), I will always point out what I
like about them. I can't do that yet with Shodai because I haven't seen enough
quality, straight-up bouts.
When speaking of Kisenosato at the Soken general keiko session, the key phrase
mentioned previously that multiple media outlets were throwing around was "The
presence of a Yokozuna." While that phrase is laughable, there are rikishi who
do have a presence besides the obvious Mongolians: M2 Ichinojo, M3 Aoiyama, M4
Tochinoshin, and M7 Osunaarashi. Now, who knows to what extent these guys will
be allowed to fight all out this tournament, but when you compare them to any of
the Japanese rikishi, the aforementioned guys all have a greater presence. I
mean, name one Japanese rikishi you're afraid of fighting.
Cue the sound of crickets chirping.
Mingled in with these foreigners are solid Japanese rikishi like M3 Yoshikaze
and M5 Tochiohzan, but those are two guys you're never afraid to fight. I read
in one news article where Yoshikaze was disappointed after his poor 4-11 showing
in Osaka because in his words "it wiped the slate of his Ozeki run clean." What?
I like both of these guys and think they are in the top five category of
Japanese rikishi, but they're not better than any foreign rikishi ranked above
them or better than Osunaarashi ranked below them. I do like the upper
Maegashira ranks in general this basho. From M1 down through M5 you have solid
rikishi. My favorite rank, M6, sucks this basho with Takanoiwa and Tamawashi,
but you gotta love Osunaarashi right there at M7. I expect a fast start from the
Egyptian that curiously cools off down the stretch for no apparent reason,
similar to what happened to Ichinojo last tournament. Can't have these foreign
rikishi in the Maegashira ranks steal the spotlight, especially when Japanese
rikishi aren't capable of doing it.
I'll be mildly interested in M8 Mitakeumi. I have actually seen things from the
kid I like, but he has too many bouts thrown in his favor, so like Shodai, I
can't get a good reading on him.
If we drop down to M14, we find our lone rookie this basho in Nishikigi. I know
nothing about the dude and will save my comments until I can see him fight the
first few days.
Here we go again with M15 Endoh. The sport certainly hasn't missed him these
last few tournaments with Kotoshogiku's yusho in January and Kisenosato's
near-miss in March. I don't think there is going to be as much pressure on Endoh
opponents to let up, so I'm hopeful that we can see this kid at full strength in
straight up bouts. I'm not going to dismiss him just yet.
Finally, at least 25% of the articles the entire pre-basho have focused on Juryo
rikishi, Ura. I've talked about Ura before, but he's an undersized kid who likes
to fight what I'll call mixed martial sumo. I've never been a fan of cat and
mouse sumo where one guy dodges this way in an attempt to trick his opponent
into an awkward position that favors the smaller rikishi. We've kind of seen
that brand of sumo from Satoyama the last few years, but Ura is going to
redefine the genre. My take is that as long as it's allowed in the rules of
sumo, I'm okay with it, but it doesn't mean that I'm going to root for this guy
or get a stiffie when he's able to trip somebody up in spectacular fashion.
As I mentioned previously...somewhere, we've seen these pint-sized tricksters
before in Kyokudozan, Mainoumi, and Tomonohana. Each of the aforementioned guys
was able to reach the sanyaku on much better banzuke, so there's no reason that
Ura can't climb that high as well; just don't ask me to hype this guy or think
he's cool. When I go to a major league baseball game, I'm hoping they throw the
guy who deals in the mid-90's, not the knuckleballer, and the same applies to me
and Ura as well. If the sumo isn't straight up, I'm not impressed, so I'm
basically calling my shot when it comes time to comment on Ura for reals come
September or so.
In the I-still-don't-know-why-I-do-this-department, here are my predictions:
Yusho: Kakuryu
Shukunsho: Myogiryu
Kantosho: Osunaarashi
Ginosho: Tochiohzan