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2015 Hatsu Pre-basho Report
Happy
New Year to everyone and it's time to refocus our attention on sumo and the
upcoming Hatsu basho. First and foremost, apologies for no Kyushu basho
post-basho report. I sat down several times to crank something out but had a
serous case of writer's block. I'm not ever going to write something just to
write it for the sake of taking up space, and if there are no new angles to
cover or no developing storylines about which to comment, I'm not going to
consume bandwidth just because. Also, I find that when I report eight days or
more during a basho, I've pretty much used up all of my takes, and so there's
nothing left to say after the fact.
As we lead into the Hatsu basho, the biggest story of course is Hakuho and the
high probability of his setting the career yusho mark with another victory at
the Hatsu basho, but as I've watched the headlines come across the last two
weeks, Ichinojo is still getting the majority of the ink. The problem with
Ichinojo now, however, is that he rose to his rightful place on the banzuke in a
single basho in the division, and so there's nowhere left for him to go. Sure,
he'll eventually make it to Ozeki, but I don't see a serious run starting for
him until maybe sometime this summer, so the media is kinda outta new stories to
hype.
As a result, Hakuho is getting a fair amount of run prior to the Hatsu basho by
default. I know it's strange to say it that way, especially with history in the
making here, but there's not a lot of excitement in the Japanese media regarding
Hakuho's pending record-breaking performance. It will get the necessary
publicity and coverage, but there really isn't a lot of emotion, anticipation,
or tension behind it. I don't see how it doesn't happen either since Hakuho has
won 9 of the last 11 tournaments, and in my opinion, I think you have to go
clear back to 2009 to find a basho where Hakuho tried to yusho but didn't. About
a year before Asashoryu's retirement, you could clearly see that Hakuho had
surpassed Asashoryu as the number one rikishi in sumo, which was crazy to say at
the time because Asashoryu ran roughshod through the division like no other
rikishi had in my days of watching active sumo (from about 1990 on).
When Asashoryu retired, Hakuho was already standing at 12 yusho with no rival (a
circumstance called muteki in Japanese), and it showed as the Yokozuna
ran off a string of 7 straight yusho losing just twice during the first six of
those with only one of the losses actually being legit (to Kisenosato). At that
point in history, sumo found itself on the brink having been mired in scandal
after scandal only to have the worst allegation possible proven true that
rikishi had actually been involved in...brace yourselves...yaocho! Upon the
yaocho revelation, the Sumo Association went through the meaningless
self-disciplinary act of cancelling the 2011 March basho, and then they took the
silliness further in May by declaring that the tournament wasn't an official
basho even though the results of the May tournament would be classified as
official (if you can figure out the logic behind that one, then yes, Goeido's
three basho win streak over Hakuho last year was for real!).
In the midst of all this
craziness, the once invincible Hakuho suddenly became vulnerable over night only
managing to yusho in four of the next nine tournaments. During those wacky 18
months where Hakuho let his guard down, Harumafuji, Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku, and
Kisenosato were all promoted to their current ranks. And while Baruto was
already an Ozeki, the Estonian managed to pick up his lone career yusho before
retiring shortly after that. The craziness culminated at the 2012 May basho
where Hakuho stepped way back, and by that I mean it was his only basho since
his first as a Yokozuna back in 2007 where he has failed to take the yusho or
jun-yusho honors. I believe it was an effort to let a Japanese rikishi yusho
since all of the elite foreign rikishi suddenly came up limp that tournament,
but leave it to Kyokutenho to rise up and spoil the day by defeating Tochiohzan
in a playoff. Oh Snap is right! And speaking of Kyokutenho in drag, have you
seen Kakuryu's new bride?
Anyway, in the two and a half years since that tournament, sumo has settled down
for the most part meaning Hakuho was back to his winning ways. The result is
that the Yokozuna finds himself sitting at 32 career yusho with nobody but
himself capable of disallowing yusho #33. I honestly don't see how he won't pick
up the historic yusho because there is no one else who can stand in his way. I
don't expect anything different from Hakuho in January than what he's displayed
the last two years: a willingness to sacrifice a loss if an elite rikishi is in
need; a nonchalant start in week one where his sumo looks uninspired; and a
steady finish while the Yokozuna and Ozeki around him cannibalize themselves out
of the yusho race. My prediction this basho is a 13-2 record worthy of the
yusho.
Let's move to the next rikishi of interest, Sekiwake Ichinojo. With multiple
reports surfacing daily about the Sekiwake prior to the basho, very few have
been positive. Endoh bested him 8-1 in an early practice session and then the
Sekiwake reportedly injured his right shoulder causing him to decline a dance or
two with Hakuho when both rikishi showed up at the same stable for de-geiko.
Judging by the pre-basho news, Ichinojo is not going to have a great basho, but
I pose the same question that I did last basho...who is going to beat him? The
three Yokozuna will; maybe one of the Ozeki will; and then maybe a beast from
the East (of Europe that is) will get him. Last basho, Ichinojo finished 8-7
giving up one loss on purpose to Kotoshogiku, and I still think he's about a 9-6
guy. The only take I had coming away from the Kyushu basho that I didn't mention
in a report was this: in his last basho in Juryo, Ichinojo was beaten twice by
Tochinoshin, once during the tournament and again in the playoff. In Kyushu,
however, when the two met up again with Tochinoshin as healthy as he's ever
been...Ichinojo just kicked Tochinoshin's ass. That says a lot about the
Mongolith's progress, and he think he's got just a few more basho to adjust, and
then he'll make a serious run. If all this injury nonsense is real, it maybe
affects him by one loss meaning he'd finish with 7-8 wins. If he's just
sandbagging, then expect 9 or so.
Besides Hakuho and Ichinojo, M3 Endoh has generated a bit of ink presumably
because he defeated Ichinojo 8-1 in an early keiko session. I didn't see a ton
of details about that session, but I have my doubts that Endoh was able to
outmuscle Ichinojo like that. Even if it was straight up, I don't see how Endoh
wins eight legitimate bouts this tournament. Fighting from the East M3 slot,
he's going to get everyone this basho, and based on his performance the last
year, I don't see how he legitimately wins more than four. I expect him to
actually flirt with kachi-koshi in the end, but he's a bit of a wildcard this
basho. I'll give him a 6-9 finish with a coupla gifts.
Beyond those three rikishi, there really hasn't been a lot of hype about anyone
else, so let's move to the top of the charts again and touch on Harumafuji and
Kakuryu. The only two rikishi capable of taking the yusho right now (assuming
Hakuho let's them) are Harumafuji and Kakuryu, but neither has made a convincing
run for nearly a year. I honestly don't know if they're holding back or whether
they're just enjoying the fat of the land that Japan has to offer, so expect 23
combined wins from the two of them that includes a jun-yusho. Boring, I know,
but what story lines have these two numbskulls generated the last four basho?
That's what I mean.