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2015 Hatsu Pre-basho Report (Page 2)
So I had a molar extracted on Tuesday, and as
unpleasant as that was, I'd do it all over again rather than watch the current
crop of Ozeki pretend to be Ozeki. I waxed nostalgic a bit talking about
Asashoryu on the first page, and what I wouldn't give to have the three Ozeki he
dealt with basho in and basho out in Kaio, Tochiazuma, and Chiyotaikai in their
primes. Of the three current Ozeki, Kisenosato has been the most consistent but
when compared to former Sekiwake like Gangstuh-no-sato and Akinoshima, well,
there is no comparison. My expectation from an Ozeki is a bulldog in the ring
who gets in your face and someone you don't want to fight. Do you think anyone
fears the current crop of Ozeki? I hate to always bash on this group because I
think it was pressure from the board of directors that put them in this place,
but I want to stress to people who've been watching sumo only for a few years
that this isn't what an Ozeki is. Guys like Harumafuji and Kakuryu aren't even
Ozeki material on a consistently strong banzuke. I was thinking the other day
that Kakuryu reminds me a lot Kyokushuzan...a guy who barely reached Komusubi.
It's fruitless to predict what these Ozeki are going to do. If all sumo was
straight up, Kisenosato would hover around seven wins, Kotoshogiku would win two
maybe, and Goeido would check in with five or six wins. With Kotoshogiku and
Goeido kadoban this basho, they are going to receive a lot of help. In Goeido's
case, he's easily going to win eight and then some. You want him on a roll
heading into his hometown of Osaka in March. As for Kotoshogiku, he's like a
wounded horse that really needs to be shot. I suppose we'll see some ugly wins
early on, but I have my doubts that he can reach eight wins even with all the
help he's going to receive. I wouldn't be surprised if Kotoshogiku retired this
basho, but let's see.
I've already talked about Ichinojo, so let's touch on Sekiwake Aoiyama in the
East slot. Dude's established himself as probably the top fifth or six guy in
the sport. Behind the Yokozuna, you have Ichinojo and then I think Aoiyama and
Tochiohzan are neck and neck for the fifth spot. I'd like to see Aoiyama do a
little bit more forward-moving sumo, but with his bad knees, he can't go for the
pull fast enough. He's still big, though, and good in a brawl, and there's no
reason why he doesn't hold serve again and win his eight.
Takayasu checks in as the first Komusubi, and I like the kid in this slot.
Takayasu is tough and big enough to handle most anyone, and he's just got to
polish his sumo a tad more. I don't think he necessarily gets his ass handed to
him as most Komusubi do of late, but it's prolly still too tall'a order for him
to win eight. Six wins in the end. Across the aisle is Tochiohzan who should
easily be a sanyaku mainstay on this banzuke. I still maintain that he's the
best Japanese rikishi on the board, and with his size and yotsu-zumo skills, I
see him winning eight or nine. Let's hope so. A legitimate Japanese rikishi is
really good for sumo.
The most underrated Japanese rikishi out there right now is M1 Takarafuji. For
the last half year, this dude has come to realize that he's got a solid sumo
body that is difficult to throw around if Takarafuji has an inside position. I
wouldn't be surprised if Takarafuji wins eight, and I think it comes down to
whether or not he'll be asked to step aside for Goeido and/or Kotoshogiku.
That's one thing that really makes me nervous this basho for the guys in the
upper Maegashira. You have two Japanese rikishi kadoban, and they have to get
their wins from somewhere. Takarafuji plays good cop and settles for six to
seven wins. Counterpart Tochinoshin is primed to shake up the jo'i a bit this
basho with his size and resurgence. Earlier in his career when he would flirt in
the jo'i, he'd get beaten down pretty good, but hopefully he notices that things
are a bit mellower now, so kachi-koshi is not out of the question. No yaocho
gifts and he gets it.
The last of the really good rikishi on the banzuke ends at the East M2 slot with
Terunofuji. One of my favorite rikishi, I always expect good things from Fuji
the Terrible, and once again, it comes down to whether or not his oyakata
(Isegahama-oyakata) will have him throw a few bouts. With two ailing Ozeki and
Endoh lurking one rank beneath, it's highly plausible. Terunofuji is capable of
winning nine from this position, but I think he's more charitable than terrible
in January, so I see him finishing with about seven wins. Across the aisle,
Ikioi is largely a jo'i wannabe.
I have no idea what to expect from M3 Endoh. Without having seen clips from that
keiko session against Ichinojo, I don't know how legit this guy really is
heading into Hatsu. My feeling is that he's slowly improving and figuring out
how to approach guys bigger than him, but he's never had success among the jo'i
before, and I don't expect it now. The dude likely graces the sanyaku in twenty
fifteen, but he falls short here with about six wins. Rounding out the top 16 is
Aminishiki who is too battered to even make a dent. Four wins perhaps?
As we scan the rest of the banzuke, there really isn't anyone who I think is out
of place. The sanyaku and top Maegashira ranks are as good as we can hope for,
and I think this is as balanced of a banzuke that we've seen with this crop of
Makuuchi rikishi. There are also a lot of solid dudes between M5 and M8, but the
problem is that they're all so equally matched that I don't see anyone of them
in particular busting out from the pack. The best sumo each day will come from
this group, so pay attention around 5 PM Japan time.
Finally, I'm puzzled just a bit by M13 Osunaarashi. It's looking more and more
like I overestimated this guy. I suppose I thought that brute strength could
overcome a weaker banzuke, but when you fight with your hips high and you're a
tall dude anyway, guys are going to get to the inside on you quite easily, and
that's why Osunaarashi is fighting down at this level. He's also had some
battered legs, and he even withdrew for a stretch at the Kyushu basho, but the
kid is still young, so let's give him more time to heal and polish his sumo
skills.
Other than the Ejyptian, I don't think anyone is out of place on the banzuke, so
let's wrap it up with my predictions:
Yusho: Hakuho (13-2)
Kantosho: Chiyotairyu
Ginosho: none...the banzuke is too balanced
Shukunsho: Tochiohzan (I've been forgetting that with two Yokozuna
besides Hakuho, it's much easier to garner Shukunsho these days