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2015 Hatsu Post-basho Report (Page 2)
I think the best comparison here to a rikishi from
the past is Hakuho vs. Taiho because their career yusho chart in terms of age is
nearly identical; these guys have nearly the same amount of yusho at the exact
same points of their career; and these two are nearly identical in size and body
type. In terms of kachi-koshi by day 8, Hakuho surpasses Taiho by over 60%. In
terms of double-digit wins, Hakuho nearly laps Taiho at an astounding 92%
increase.
Furthermore, I think these charts factor in injuries to a degree. How so? Just
ask yourself how guys get injured in sumo. The larger the beating your body
takes and the more strain you have to put on your joints and muscles, the higher
the probability of injury. Hakuho never gets injured because no one on the
banzuke can challenge him physically to the extent that he puts undue strain on
his body. Then, during the usual two weeks of pre-basho keiko, Hakuho doesn't
really start practicing with other Makuuchi guys until the week of the
tournament, and even then, he'll prolly fight 30 bouts in total over just a few
days. In terms of used cars, he's the 2004 Buick the granny down the street is
driving with a whopping 15,000 miles on the odometer.
As a basho progresses, I take various notes and different trends that I observe,
and one of the main points that I've taken away from this basho is the same I've
noticed in too many previous basho the past year, and that is the inability for
the sanyaku and jo'i rikishi to kachi-koshi. Clancy also pointed this out on
senshuraku, but save M2 Terunofuji--who finished 8-7, from the Sekiwake rank
down, you have to go as deep as M6 on the East and as deep as M8 on the West to
find the next guy with a winning record! That stat is absolutely astounding, but
it seems to occur every few basho of late. No wonder Hakuho has no strain on his
body, and then when you factor in the current wilted crop of Ozeki, you start to
wonder how Hakuho hasn't died of boredom yet. Hakuho is the sport's greatest,
but the numbers in these graphics reflect just how awful the guys around him
have been as well.
The
final graphic NHK displayed is this one at right, which depicts the number of
zensho yusho. This chart reads as follows:
1) Hakuho 10 (this was before he won on senshuraku so it's 11 now)
2) Futabayma, Taiho 8
4) Kitanoumi, Chiyonofuji 7
Ah, the good ole zensho yusho, the hardest feat to accomplish in a basho. Once
again, Hakuho leads in this category as well, but he doesn't run away from the
rest of the all-time greats as he does in the other charts, so why would that
be? After Asashoryu's retirement, Hakuho took the next six basho by storm
winning them all with an incredible 88-2 record that included four zensho yusho
sandwiched in the middle, but while this was an astounding feat, ticket sales
dropped to their lowest point in modern history, and when I say lowest, I mean
downright embarrassing levels. Something had to change in sumo and fast, and it
was clear that the Japanese people were not going to pay money to watch their
fellow countrymen get their asses kicked on a repeated basis by the foreigners,
and so little by little, Hakuho started losing more frequently.
Hakuho went from an 88-2 record in 2010 to a prorated 79-11 record in 2011 and
then to an even worse finish of 76-14 in 2012, and magically the banzuke began
to stir again. During the two years when Hakuho was 26 and 27 (refer to the very
first chart I posted), he only managed 5 yusho, and during that span, he lowered
the bar enabling two new Japanese Ozeki to be promoted, one Mongolian Ozeki to
be promoted, a Mongolian Yokozuna to be promoted, and the first-time yusho for
Baruto and Kyokutenho. Along with the re-alignment in the banzuke that now
included Japanese rikishi again in the elite ranks, Hakuho also managed to
restore a sense of parity among the ranks and create a faux sense of
vulnerability...all at an age when he should have been hitting his prime.
At his most dominant point in history, Hakuho had 16 career yusho with eight of
them being zensho yusho for an unheard of 50% clip. Over the next four years,
Hakuho would pick up 17 more yusho but only run the table thrice leading to a
17.6% ratio, and before senshuraku of the 2015 Hatsu basho, that percentage sat
at 12.5%. So why such an astonishing decline? Was the banzuke getting better?
Was Hakuho giving up more kin-boshi? Was the jo'i getting stronger? No, no, and
no. We lost Ozeki in Baruto and Kotooshu, and replaced them with Kotoshogiku and
Kisenosato. And Goeido's recent promotion to the Ozeki ranks has only watered
down the elite ranks even more. That zensho yusho graphic is extremely telling
when you break it down into a tale of two halves, and all of these charts in my
opinion backup exactly the narrative that Sumotalk has been providing during
Hakuho's reign.
As for Hakuho's sumo in January, it was purposefully erratic, but once he
reached 13-0 with only the two Mongolian Yokozuna in his path, he went straight
back to his signature sumo, which is the right inside and left outer grip, and
the result was two yori-kiri wins to put a stamp on the basho. I
think Hakuho was willing to take a loss along the way at the Hatsu basho, but
once he was clear of any opponents with political implications, he sent the message that yes, I still got it when I want it.
And speaking of messages from Yokozuna, holy shat, did you see Yokozuna
Harumafuji's statement on senshuraku? Like Hakuho, I believe that Harumafuji has
also lowered the bar in his sumo in order to give a greater appearance of
parity, but I think he finally got tired of the whole dog and pony show and
decided to send a message against Ozeki Kisenosato and show just how wide the
gap is between #2 and Japan's purported #1. Unlike Hakuho, Harumafuji has a mean
streak to him, and he was noticeably pissed this basho when he faced the three
Japanese Ozeki. None of the bouts were even close, and HowDo can do this any
time he pleases. As for the rest of his basho, I have no idea what he was
thinking against Jokoryu, and then it looked as if Aoiyama's size got the best
of the Yokozuna. Harumafuji finishes the basho at 11-4, and I don't see how he
isn't the next guy to yusho when Hakuho finally relents.
As for Yokozuna Kakuryu, he played his role nicely like Harumafuji only the Kak
finished a notch lower at 10-5. Kakuryu doesn't have the redass like the former
Ama giving up wins to Takarafuji, Kotoshogiku, and Kisenosato. It's also my
opinion that he was giving Goeido an easy chance, but Goeido just haplessly
flopped his way to the dirt in their affair. I don't even bother reading the
YDC's comments anymore, but they're not going to come down hard on Kakuryu when
he pads the records of the Japanese Ozeki. He's living off'a the fat of the land
and doing his part.
Let's move onto the Ozeki starting with Kisenosato, who reportedly has his face
properly rearranged again after Harumafuji undid him on senshuraku. Kisenosato
is the most exposed rikishi at the tachi-ai in the division, and Harumafuji
demonstrated this fact on day 15. To think that Hakuho was incapable of a
similar feat in two tries is idiotic. Kakuryu could have kicked his ass in
similar fashion as could have Ichinojo and Aoiyama. I'm trying to be nice here,
so I'll just say that Kisenosato is incapable of establishing an offensive
position from the tachi-ai. He's largely at the mercy of his opponents, and I'd
say he earned just 4 or 5 wins on his own.
And as bad as Kisenosato is, Ozeki Kotoshogiku is even worse. The dude can no
longer move laterally, and it's not his fault his knees are giving out, but the
Geeku is contributing nothing to sumo right now. In fact, he's a major
detractor. How so? You know that phenomenon I mentioned earlier about the
inability for the sanyaku/jo'i guys to kachi-koshi? From the Sekiwake ranks down
through M5 in the East and M7 in the West, you have a total of 16 guys. One of
them scored a kachi-koshi with Terunofuji going 8-7. How can that be...16 guys
all in one lump on the charts and none of them can kachi-koshi save one? In my
20 odd years of watching sumo, I had never seen such a phenomenon until
recently. Well, the explanation comes in a statement I made just after Goeido
was promoted to Ozeki which went something like this: If you use yaocho to
promote guys to Ozeki, then you must use yaocho to sustain them at the rank.
The reason that the jo'i cannot kachi-koshi is because they're giving their
valuable wins away to the Ozeki. The jo'i is absolutely cut throat, so much so
that if a guy actually manages to win in double digits, it's time to consider
him as an Ozeki candidate. In a place where it's so hard to even win eight,
these guys just can't give wins away to the Ozeki and then find enough to get
promoted themselves. I think this is largely the reason why I'm always on edge
and so derisive in my comments: the buoying up of the Ozeki is taking a toll on
a natural banzuke and just skewing the sport in unnatural ways. Kotoshogiku's
9-6 was meaningless. Well, I guess the repercussions are that more wins are going
to be needed in order to sustain him at the rank in the future.
Sheesh, I'm really pissed now, and I haven't even gotten to Ozeki Goeido. Quick,
what's Goeido's overall record as an Ozeki? That's right, he's 21-24 with no
excuse of any injuries. Then, when you consider how many favors have been done
for him in the two basho where he did "kachi-koshi," his actual record would
probably be closer to 12-33. Dude is averaging a make-koshi as an Ozeki with
help from his friends, and yet, he's going to be heading into Osaka with a clean
slate. It's just mind boggling to me, but do you know why Goeido has to
continually be sustained at this rank for the next few years? There's nobody to
replace him. It was obvious that Endoh was being bred and touted as the next,
but he's even more hapless than Goeido. I'm sure eventually Endoh will get his
act together, but besides Endoh, who they gonna promote to Ozeki in the future?
You have two guys in Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku who are teetering on the edge
and incapable of doing anything, but you can't let them retire and leave just
Goeido to hold down the fort. Ichinojo and Terunofuji are shoe-ins as the next
Ozeki, but how are they going to be balanced out with Japanese rikishi? Quick,
name the last Japanese rookie to enter the Makuuchi division.
Cue sound of crickets chirping.
There is nobody making any noise and climbing up the ranks. Endoh was the most
recent guy who showed true promise, but look what happened as soon as he hit the
upper Maegashira levels. I think sumo is in an extremely precarious situation
moving forward, and now that Hakuho has achieved the greatest record of them
all, it will be very interesting to see what twists and turns await us. As far
as I'm concerned, the Haru basho pre-basho headlines can't come soon enough as
that will give us the first indication of where the hype will be centered, but
I'm getting ahead of myself.
Let's drop down to the Sekiwake ranks where Aoiyama was decent finishing 5-10. I
know that record doesn't look decent on paper, but believe me, he did his job
taking hits against all three Japanese Ozeki and then likely Okinoumi on
senshuraku. I think if Aoiyama fights straight up on this banzuke, he's easily
an eight win guy, and he'd consistently win more than that if he was more
mobile. His gimpy legs send him to frequent losses, but he's one of the better
guys in the division by default.
Counterpart Ichinojo finished 6-9, but I just had the sense from the strange
pre-basho headlines that this guy wasn't going to shine in January. There is no
way that Endoh legitimately beat him 8-1 in pre-basho keiko, and I didn't buy
Endoh's win over him on day 1 either. Like Aoiyama, Ichinojo has learned his
place, and we'll likely have to wait for a little bit more stability in the
Ozeki ranks (is that even possible?) before we see him win in double-digits from
the sanyaku. It's too bad he will likely fall out of the sanyaku because he's
clearly the #4 guy in sumo already.
Komusubi Takayasu was decent this basho, but he deferred to both kadoban Ozeki
ultimately finishing 6-9. Dude beat both Sekiwake and beat up for the most part
the guys ranked below him, and maybe this is a guy penciled in as Japan's next
Ozeki candidate, but damn, if he just didn't have a mother who wasn't
Japanese... He's already got a few "upsets" of Yokozuna under his mawashi, and
he's definitely got the body to vie for the Ozeki rank--well, TODAY'S version of
the Ozeki rank--with just a leedle bit of help. We'll see.
Komusubi Tochiohzan just missed out on kachi-koshi and promotion to Sekiwake,
and I think he was too nonchalant in his senshuraku bout against Myogiryu
finishing the fortnight at 7-8 (Oh Snap!). I still think Tochiohzan is the best
Japanese rikishi on the board, but I'm starting to notice a glaring weakness in
his sumo: dude is not comfortable fighting at the belt unless he has moro-zashi.
Yes, he's good at getting both arms to the inside, but you still have to be
content with a good inside grip and outside belt grip on the other side when
it's available. I see Tochiohzan abandoning that basic belt stance in favor of
maki-kae that could lead to moro-zashi, but the moment he looks to be shut out
from that second inside grip, he resorts to a pull. Let's watch him in Osaka,
but I fear he's becoming stuck in this rut: go for moro-zashi; pull if you don't
get it.
As we head to the Maegashira ranks, let's touch on rikishi of interest starting
with M1 Takarafuji in the East. Like Tochiohzan, dude entered the senshuraku at
7-7, and I suspect he thought Sadanoumi was going to lay down for him because
there was no fire in his attack with so much on the line. After all, Takarafuji
did dutifully bow to the three Ozeki, and if you go back and look at those
bouts, it's apparent. But, it's a strange game, and dude falls to 7-8. If it's
any compensation, I do think Takarafuji is the second best JPN rikishi on the
board behind Tochiohzan.
Counterpart Tochinoshin finished 6-9, and I think he's a lot like Aoiyama right
now in that he's big enough to reach the Sekiwake rank, but circumstances out of
his control will dictate that he probably doesn't obtain it on a consistent
basis. It is good to see Shin back and healthy, though.
M2 Terunofuji was the one guy able to win eight bouts this basho among the jo'i,
and that says a lot. Look, all of these guys were asked to sacrifice a win or
two for the good of the sport, and so it is meaningful that Terunofuji was able
to kachi-koshi when the others couldn't. Perhaps his being a stablemate of
Harumafuji and not having to fight him is what put him over the top, but
nonetheless, he's your East Sekiwake for Osaka. I recently did a podcast
broadcast with a dude named Don Roid, who covers a lot of martial arts sports,
and in it he asked me who my favorite wrestler was. At this point of my life, I
truly don't have any rooting interests in sumo, which enables me to take away
any rooting emotion from my comments, but I did say that my favorite guy to
watch right now was Terunofuji. Of course, if the Japanese media asked me the
same question, I would have fed them what they wanted to hear and said Endoh,
but for whatever reason, I love watching Terunofuji try and wriggle his way out
of tough spots. That bout with Ichinojo was epic, and once the current crop of
Yokozuna retire...these two are your next. What will be interesting to watch is
just how quickly they're allowed to reach the Ozeki rank.
From Terunofuji, you have to drop down as far as M6 Okinoumi to find our next
kachi-koshi rikishi, and I suppose Okinoumi will find himself ranked as
Sekiwake alongside of Terunofuji next basho. Okinoumi had a good basho
numbers-wise, but when he got a little bit hot and they fed him tougher
competition like Terunofuji, Tochinoshin, and even a sexy Tokushoryu, he wilted
into a three bout losing streak. And did I just call Tokushoryu sexy?
M8 Myogiryu finished 9-6 which may move him up to the Komusubi rank (I really
think the NSK should consider keeping Ichinojo in the sanyaku despite his 6-9),
and it will be nice to see what this former Sekiwake can do up there. The one
concern I have about Myogiryu is that he's not kicking ass and taking names
anymore from the mid-Maegashira ranks, and I fear that his best days are behind
him.
Counterpart Sadanoumi to the west also finished at 9-6 picking up that huge win
over Takarafuji on senshuraku. I'm really excited to see what he can do among
the jo'i. Due to his smaller stature, I'm not expecting eight wins, but I like
his sumo, and I like how he's a belt fighter, so let's see what he can do.
As I look down the rest of the charts, there's really no one else that I have
anything to say about. M13 Osunaarashi did pick up kachi-koshi at 8-7, but his
knees already seem to beat up, and the dude still fights way to high for his own
good. In a conversation I had with Martin about six months ago, I told him that
Ichinojo, Terunofuji, and Osunaarashi were the future of sumo. I think it's safe
to say you can scratch Osunaarashi from that list.
In general, it was a very low-scoring basho in that you had a total of six
rikishi reach double-digit wins. With three of those being the Yokozuna and
another double-digit performance coming from the Ozeki ranks, you only had two
guys able to reach 10 or more in Tamawashi and Tokushoryu. That is a clear
indication of just how balanced the banzuke was for Hatsu, and I still remember
as I was making my sansho predictions in my pre-basho report that not a single
guy really stood out. We'll see what the Haru basho banzuke brings.
As we wind down the Hatsu basho, there was a lot of emotion in the air due to
the large crowds and Hakuho's making history, but it will be extremely
interesting to see how the sport turns in Osaka...if indeed it does.