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2016 Nagoya Pre-basho Report
Kaisei and Tochinoshin are legitimate Sekiwake, and if
they were Japanese rikishi, both would already be Yokozuna. I see the two of
them going 1-5 against the Japanese rikishi, and then they're probably 1-7 or
2-8 against the Mongolians, so there's six losses apiece for both of them right
off the bat. Still, they're so much better than everyone below them that chances
are good that they both kachi-koshi.
Kotoyuki and Takayasu check in as the Komusubi, and it's critical for both that
they at least finish the first week 2-5. Chances are good that one or the other
will pick up a shukun win along the way with a gift from a Yokozuna. Since both
of these guys are stable mates with Japanese Ozeki, that's one less loss that
they have to suffer, and when so much bout fixing is going on, every loss you
don't have to suffer the better.
Mitakeumi leads the way in the Maegashira ranks, but that's on paper only. Name
this guy's biggest win so far in his career. That's right...you can't because he
doesn't have one. In a bout of de-geiko against Hakuho, Mitakeumi suffered a
slight muscle tear in his left leg, so don't be surprised if he hobbles his way
to kyujo before the first week is done.
Tochiohzan checks in at M1 West, and here's a legitimate guy who hasn't had
anything given to him. He's still probably the best Japanese rikishi on the
board.
And if Oh is #1, M2's Okinoumi and Takarafuji are right behind. Kotoyuki has
become a top five Japanese rikishi, so that leaves one more to fill out the top
five. Prior to last basho, I posed the following question to Kane: what Japanese
rikishi in the Makuuchi division is the most feared? Take a minute and go
through the list of Japanese rikishi in your head. Which Japanese dude would the
average Makuuchi rikishi not want to deal with the most? I concluded that the
most feared rikishi at the time was Aminishiki because he's a savvy veteran who
knows how to win, and more importantly, you have no idea what to expect from him
on a day to day basis. So, in my opinion your top five Japanese rikishi are:
Tochiohzan
Takarafuji
Okinoumi
Kotoyuki
Aminishiki
Of course, Aminishiki suffered that ruptured Achilles tendon last basho, so he
is kyujo here in Nagoya. I also saw on the wires that Osunaarashi just pulled
out causing the Sumo Association to redo a portion of the day 2 bouts, and then
early on in the pre-basho keiko sessions, Toyonoshima also suffered a ruptured
Achilles tendon.
With the withdrawal of Osunaarashi, it pushes the last jo'i slot down to M3
Myogiryu, a rikishi who could replace Aminishiki in the top five. With a few
stable mates among the jo'i who won't fight each other, our M4's in Shohozan and
Ikioi will see some jo'i action, but I don't see any of these guys making an
impact.
Next to the three Japanese Ozeki, M5 Shodai is the most over-rated Japanese
rikishi at the moment. Dude hasn't shown us anything; and yet he is still
considered one of Japan's hopes.
In my favorite rank, M6, you have two completely different rikishi in Aoiyama
and Endoh. With Aoiyama not obligated to give up any wins (other than Endoh),
look for him to have the best basho of any of the Maegashira...quietly of
course. Who knows what's in store for Endoh? Under his own power, I think he's
good for about three wins, but we'll see what happens.
Ichinojo is a total wild card at the M7 rank, but like Aoiyama, he'll probably
flub up just enough so as to stay out of the spotlight quietly checking in with
10 or 11 wins in the end. Both Ichinojo and Terunofuji are such good rikishi
that it's a shame that they're being asked to perform along the lines of their
Japanese counterparts.
Once you get past Ichinojo, there is literally nothing to talk about on this
banzuke. We have one first-timer in Kitaharima clear down at M15, but his only
claim to fame is that the "hari" kanji in his shikona is so rare that they print
his name using hiragana characters instead online.
I'll close with my usual useless predictions, and then beneath that, I'll post a
picture of the Nagoya venue as seen from the top window of the Nagoya castle.
During the broadcast, they often show the Nagoya-jo in the background from a
camera mounted on top of the Aichi Prefecture gymnasium, so here's a picture
from my iPhone of the venue as seen from my vantage point in the Nagoya-jo...and
no, there was unfortunately no mounting taking placed when I took it.
Yusho: Harumafuji (we'll give this one to Kisenosato's so-called rival at
13-2)
Shukunsho: Kotoyuki
Ginosho: Ichinojo
Kantosho: Aoiyama
