Mike's Profile

Archives

2010 Haru Basho Pre-basho Report Helmut Newton sumo.
In my latest blog entry on Asashoryu's retirement, I concluded the piece by saying that Asashoryu's departure leaves a giant hole in sumo. A few hours after I updated my blog, Hakuho held a press conference upon receiving the new banzuke and expressed the exact same thought in, "I feel as if there's a big hole inside." And I think anyone who has been following sumo the last few years noticed it too when first laying eyes on the banzuke. Now, Asashoryu's departure from sumo in the next two years or so was imminent anyway as the Yokozuna had obviously peaked and was in the twilight of his career, but there's a hole in sumo right now because Asashoryu was shown the door while still having something meaningful to prove atop the dohyo. Sumo fans feel a hole in sumo because 1) we've been denied the chance to see if Asashoryu could get the record, and 2) the reasons behind Asashoryu's departure were racially motivated. 

Now, there are some who probably think that Asashoryu brought this upon himself, but it simply isn't true. If Asashoryu was a disgrace to the sumo way and to the rank of Yokozuna, then why is the character assassination continuing even after he's retired from the sport altogether? I talked in my blog about the movement to have Asashoryu's danpatsu-shiki scheduled for October cancelled, and with Asashoryu's recent visit to Mongolia where he expressed to the media his honest feelings about some aspects of the Sumo Association he didn't like, some Japanese media outlets jumped on the remarks threatening that the danpatsu-shiki would be cancelled if Asashoryu continues to criticize the Association.

In Osaka, the latest "controversy" is that Asashoryu is talking about acquiring masu-seki seating for the Haru basho and attending the basho as a normal spectator. But the media has already began making a stink about it saying that Asashoryu's presence would detract from the main event and cause too big of a disturbance. "It's not acceptable for a former Yokozuna to sit in the crowd and watch sumo with a beer in his hand," was one of the arguments I read. Why not? So it was acceptable for Akebono to get prison tattoos and make a fool out of himself in a purple leotard all in the name of fighting mixed martial arts?

What's happening here is the media doesn't want Asashoryu to attend the Haru basho because they know the response from the fans in attendance will be nothing but positive. They don't want his danpatsu-shiki to be held because they know demand for the event will be unprecedented, and it will be a celebration of Asashoryu. The former Yokozuna has become a hero to the commoners, so they don't want anyone to see that side of him when they've been painting Asashoryu as someone entirely different.

And this attempt at character assassination of fellow Asians in the sports world is not something unique to only Asashoryu. Within 24 hours after South Korean Kim Yu-Na won the gold medal in ladies figure skating at the Olympics over Japan's Asada Mao, Japanese websites began making derogatory posts about Kim. People were digging up bad pictures of Kim that showed her with her eyes half closed or her mouth open in a funny way or some other retarded expression, and then there were clips on YouTube Japan one of which showed Kim's performances breaking down how the landings on her jumps weren't clean (they even added graphics breaking down the angles of her skate blades, etc), one claiming how the judges were obviously biased, and another that showed a series of obviously doctored photos that showed Kim being ostracized by the other skaters because apparently nobody liked her.

It was all so ridiculous and childish, but this is just a normal reaction from the Japanese people. They do this all the time. In the case of Asashoryu and Kim Yu-Na, they see where a fellow Asian has bested them in something they wanted, so their reaction is to tear that person down, paint him or her in a bad light, or belittle the accomplishment. Most of us grew out of the we-really-won-because-they-cheated mentally once we turned 12. Apparently, Japan hasn't.

So that's why there's a hole in sumo right now. It isn't necessarily because Asashoryu is gone; it's the reasons behind why he is gone. But, there's a basho a few days away, so let's get down to the secondary news and breakdown the rikishi starting with Yokozuna Hakuho.

Asashoryu's managing to take three yusho the last seven basho and Harumafuji's yusho at last year's Natsu basho kept Yokozuna Hakuho just out of the spotlight enough to where most sumo fans have yet to truly grasp how dominant Hakuho has been the last several years. Yusho numbers aside, Hakuho's 86-4 performance in 2009 was no fluke, and it's just a foreshadowing of the sheer dominance that awaits us. In order to examine the coming Hakuho era compared to the Asashoryu era in the mid-oughties, consider the surrounding casts.

When Asashoryu dominated 4-5 years ago, he had three solid Ozeki on the board in Kaio, Chiyotaikai, and Tochiazuma. Without Asashoryu around, those three all become Yokozuna no questions asked. Among them, they boast 11 career yusho and were legitimate threats to wrestle the yusho from Asashoryu's paws each basho.

Now look at the cast of Ozeki that Hakuho has surrounding him. I'm not going to list Kaio nor Kotomitsuki because both of those Ozeki are irrelevant and barely hanging onto their careers. In their place let's put Baruto, who is a shoe-in to assume the Ozeki rank in due time. That being said, Hakuho's cast of Ozeki is Harumafuji, Kotooshu, and Baruto. That trio has two career yusho among them, and in my opinion, neither of those yusho were legitimate. Hokutoriki's 13-2 performance in May 2004 was hands down more impressive than Kotooshu's 14-1 yusho in Natsu 2008 and Harumafuji's 14-1 yusho in Natsu 2009.

To be fair, Harumafuji, Kotooshu, and Baruto have yet to peak in their careers (I hope), and they will undoubtedly tally up more yusho in the years to come, but the gap between Hakuho and his three Ozeki is much wider than the gap between Asashoryu and his trio of Ozeki. Adding to the equation, Hakuho is bigger than Asashoryu was, and his sumo is more stable meaning there is less risk of losing. Who can forget in the middle of last decade when every close call went against Asashoryu or when a mono-ii should have been called that wasn't if the gunbai went against the Yokozuna? Those close calls don't happen with Hakuho because his sumo is more stable. The point here is that Hakuho is in a better position to dominate for the next few years than Asashoryu was when he ruled the sport.

The Hakuho era officially begins now, and when he's finished, I'd be surprised if he hasn't surpassed everyone of Asashoryu's records. As for his performance in Haru, he's healthy, so he's gonna yusho.

The one interesting facet to Hakuho is how he will respond to the events of the last 6 weeks mentally. I don't buy the speculation that there is pressure on a lone Yokozuna. Asashoryu never felt it; Akebono didn't; Musashimaru didn't when Takanohana was out for 7 straight basho. In contrast, Moose pillaged and plundered in Takanohana's absence, so Hakuho is not going to feel any added pressure. If anything, I'm worried about a let down. A let down because the only other guy that had a chance to yusho is gone, or a let down because he's working for an organization that just dissed a fellow countryman. We'll have to watch Hakuho's demeanor this basho, but if anything gets to him, I think it will be sheer boredom. Hak may slip up once amidst the turmoil, but he comfortably skates to the yusho at 14-1.

In the Ozeki ranks, Harumafuji slips into the top spot, and if there's anyone that benefits by Asashoryu's absence it's this guy. That three-headed Mongolian monster has been cut to two, so if Hakuho relents on something like the yusho and has any say about who will take it in his place, Harumafuji is your man. Harumafuji also benefits by no Asashoryu in that he usually lost to his superior. In fact, everyone else on the banzuke except Hakuho and Kotooshu who dominated Asashoryu of late now go from having to fight a tough Yokozuna to getting an M4 in his place. Everyone's average win total automatically increases by nearly one, which sucks for Tamawashi. As for Harumafuji's performance this basho, his recent keiko session where he got his ass kicked by Kisenosato has me somewhat concerned physically, but mentally, this guys knows full well the benefits he can reap with no Asashoryu around, so he's gonna try and get his at any cost. I see Harumafuji winning 11 bouts.

Ozeki Kotooshu is the only other guy besides Hakuho who was dominating Asashoryu before his retirement, so while Kotooshu doesn't automatically pick up one more win, like Harumafuji he knows that if for any reason Hakuho fails to yusho, he's the next in line to succeed the throne. This has to inspire Kotooshu, and I see him firmly moving into the number two spot in the sport and keeping Hakuho honest basho after basho. Physically, I think Kotooshu's 100%, so I expect him to hover around the 12-13 win mark and force Hakuho to earn the yusho. The key is Kotooshu cannot lose the first five days as he doesn't handle losses well.

I think Ozeki Kaio is in some trouble this basho. The top third of the banzuke just looks too good in my opinion. Furthermore, with Asashoryu gone and Kaio and Kotomitsuki on their last legs, I think the other rikishi now have a sense that there are/will be some vacancies high in the ranks, so it will inspire them to work harder to obtain them. Kaio gets stampeded in the rush and only manages 7 wins.

Ozeki Kotomitsuki looked horrible in Hatsu, but there's no way he's dumb enough to let himself go for two straight basho. He'll have some fire in his belly from day one, and I see Hit and Mitsuki cruising to 9-10 wins with a fast start and then average sumo down the stretch.

Which brings us to the rikishi garnering the most attention (next to Asashoryu) prior to Haru, Sekiwake Baruto. It's been the tale of two giants the last few weeks: the Baruto without the thumb injury, and the Baruto with the sprained digit. Let's talk about both.

Even before Baruto's thumb injury, the main question with the Estonian was how would he handle the pressure of officially being up for promotion to Ozeki. There was debate among the furrener fans after his 12-3 performance in Hatsu as to whether or not he deserved Ozeki promotion, and the answer was clearly no. As I explained in my Hatsu post-basho report, one of the most important factors in obtaining the Ozeki rank is performing under pressure. Baruto was under no pressure last basho; so no promotion. With the release of the banzuke in Osaka, the Sumo Association acknowledged that Baruto was up for Ozeki promotion meaning the pressure was officially on. The Estonian was reportedly barking at reporters early on as they swarmed him at his keiko sessions telling them he couldn't concentrate when they were there. That right there is not good because Baruto's is letting the little things distract him from the get-go. And then to actually admit it... Even if Baruto's thumb was 100%, after that reaction to the initial hype, I don't think he would have secured the needed 12 wins. Just ask Asashoryu how big of a pain the ass the Japanese media is, and then try to perform under that spotlight. I don't think Baruto was up to the task.

Now that his left hand has been rendered completely useless (he can't push and he can't grab), it'll take a miracle for him to win 12 this tournament, which is really too bad because we all wanted to see a completely healthy Baruto. I think Bart can survive early on since he doesn't necessarily need to use that left hand. He can get the left arm deep on the inside of his opponent's right side and raise him up instead of grabbing the belt while he secures a belt grip with the right hand, but the rikishi will clue into it fast as can be. Also, the smart ones will find a way to bump Baruto's left hand at the tachi-ai to take advantage because you don't rise to this level of the banzuke on stupidity. Baruto's got a tough row to hoe here in Osaka, and he should just be grateful for kachi-koshi at this point. Promotion to Ozeki is out of the question unless he's totally sandbagging us here. Give him 9 wins for his trouble.

Counterpart Toyonoshima is ranked too high at Sekiwake, and when I say that I don't mean that he can't kachi-koshi; I mean that he can't consistently keep himself in the sanyaku. Still, Toyonoshima is 100% healthy, and he's not intimidated by these big shots. Toyonoshima will hold his own this basho, and I actually think his chances to kachi-koshi are 50-50, so look for him to finish with either 7 or 8 wins.

If keiko reports are any indication, then Komusubi Kisenosato is on fire. The Kid is a curious fellow because he usually looks great for four basho a year and then falters for two in a row. He's coming out of a recent funk, and I expect him to throw his weight around to the tune of 10 wins, something he shoulda got last basho. His confidence has to by sky high after roughing up Harumafuji pre-basho; Asashoryu is out of the way giving him an extra win; and the Kid is worthy and ready to take one of the spots higher up the banzuke.

Aminishiki rounds out the Komusubi rank, and like Kisenosato, he can go into a funk for a couple of basho, but he'll rebound quickly as he showed in January. Ami's a veteran who realizes the holes at the top of the banzuke, and I see him inspired to get his in Osaka. Give Amini-Shneaky eight wins at least without needing the shenanigans.

Leading the way in the Maegashira ranks is Kakuryu, and this is right where the Kak needs to be. The cut in pay is enough to inspire him and make him work hard, something he absolutely failed to do in January. I think the Kak realized he had a cushion at 7-8 as a Komusubi's pay is the same as Sekiwake, but he got burned at the Hatsu basho because he was unprepared. Kakuryu soars in these situations, and I expect nothing less from him in Osaka. 9 wins at least.

Look who sits across the aisle, none other than Wakanosato. I love the Crocodile in this position because the jo'i rikishi will definitely overlook him. Wakanosato can beat anyone on the banzuke 'cept Hakuho if you give him the solid inside position, so watch for him to pick up some early upsets and then peter out once people take notice. 6-7 wins.

M2 Kyokutenho has been uninspired the last 6 months, but his sheer size, ability, and experience have sent him right back up near the top. I don't think the Chauffeur necessarily has a fire under his arse, so I look for another nonchalant performance where he sleepwalks his way to six or seven wins. The most compelling rikishi on the banzuke this basho is counterpart Aran, who looked great in January (with no shenanigans!) and is presumably back to full strength after a bout with mouth cancer hindered him the first half of last year. If Aran refuses to henka and tries to win with power this basho, he can kachi-koshi. But if he goes Tochinoshin on us and softens up at this level giving us straight tachi-ai mingled with henka, he's going nowhere. I hope that Aran understands that he has the tools to succeed at this level. I see him hovering between 7-8 wins not fully trusting in his ability at this rank.

M3 Goeido is receiving a bit of hype for several reasons...he's from Osaka, he's the first Japanese rikishi to win the recent Ozumo tournament since Musoyama in 2003, and he's been having his way with Tochinoshin and Tochiohzan in the keiko ring. The key for Goeido is a straight-forward tachi-ai, a low attack, and fighting from the inside out. Goeido seems to have a lot going for him right now, and even if those one day tourneys and pre-basho keiko don't mean THAT much, as long as it gives Goeido confidence in himself, it's good. I just sense that the stars are aligned for Goeido this basho and he'll rack up nine or so wins as he regains a sanyaku slot. Counterpart Kotoshogiku has been either hot or cold seemingly every other basho. He's got a lot going for him in Haru, however. There aren't a whole lot of rikishi superior to him on this banzuke, there are some newbies just below him he can school, and he's coming off of a bad basho meaning he's due. I like the Geeku to exhibit a solid performance and kachi-koshi in Osaka.

M4 Tamawashi is the final member of the jo'i meaning at #16 from the top, he's slated to get the 15 guys above him. Tamawashi is a big dude, and he's got skills, but very few rikishi are ever ready for their debut among the jo'i. I see Tamawashi being a half step behind his opponent in nearly every bout, so he'll do well to even win five. Counterpart Tosayutaka will have more breathing room, but he will get both of the Sadogatake Ozeki. There's also plenty of veteran rikishi below Tosayutaka that I don't see how he's going to win more than five bouts himself. M4 will not be a productive rank in Haru.

I like Toyohibiki in the M5 slot. He's high in the ranks; yet, he's out of the jo'i, so this will be a great test for him but not impossible. Let's hope for another big basho from the Nikibi. I expect him to flirt with kachi-koshi and finish with no more than eight wins. Two years ago, counterpart Homasho would have thrived at this rank, but I look both up and down the ranks, and I don't see a rikishi that Homasho is better than until I get down to M9 Hakuba. I think Homasho can scrap his way to six wins maybe, but I don't see him winning a majority.

M6 is going to be a fun rank to watch with Tochiohzan in the East and Tochinoshin in the West. Both of these guys really belong among the jo'i every basho, but you can't spell Kasugano-beya without the letters S-O-F-T. Well, maybe you can, but you get the point. Both of these guys should rock, especially Tochinoshin who is so big and strong that he can out-muscle everyone around him. I expect close to 20 wins from this rank with Tochinoshin outperforming his stablemate by two wins.

M7 is a good spot these days for Miyabiyama, and although there are a lot of young, better guys above him, there isn't a rikishi below him whose ass the Sheriff can't kick. Pencil in Miyabiyama for eight wins. Counterpart Kakizoe is one of those guys who performs the same no matter where he's at on the banzuke, and it's always a struggle for him to kachi-koshi. He's low enough I guess and has enough winnable bouts beneath him that kachi-koshi isn't out of the question, but I think he falls just short with seven wins.

It's good to see Iwakiyama back up to M8. He delivers a straight-forward tachi-ai every bout, and his size advantage will allow him to kachi-koshi in these parts. Eight wins. Counterpart Takekaze is also a rikishi who has made a bit of a resurgence. No, he can't hang among the jo'i anymore, but he's feisty enough that he can easily pull out a kachi-koshi as well.

M9 Hakuba is the worst guy in the division, and I haven't even seen Sagatsukasa fight yet. Guys like Hakuba can kachi-koshi using nothing but henka once, but his peers won't get fooled again (gotta love the Who). Hakuba gets exposed in Haru and musters maybe five wins. Counterpart Yoshikaze is like stablemate Takekaze, Iwakiyama, and Kakizoe. It's pretty much a battle no matter where he's ranked, but the veteran should figure out a way to get his eight. Don't see more than that though.

I like Kitataiki at the M10 rank, and if his knee feels good, I expect nine or so wins. He's a lot quicker than you think and sets his opponents up well with the tsuppari only to finish them off at the belt. No comment on counterpart Shimotori who will win 5-6.

I can honestly say I can't remember a single Asasekiryu bout for like...well, for a very long time. He's getting too old for his hips-back-body-low style to work against these youngsters. 6-7 wins. Counterpart Hokutoriki is a wolf in sheep's clothing at this level. He'll exploit his peers with his usual chicanery coupled with his stiff tsuppari attack that should earn him 10 wins or more.

Which brings us to M12 and our first of three rookies, Okinoumi. Okinoumi will be one to watch for several reasons. First, he's a big dude and an effective yotsu fighter. And by big I don't mean a fat slob. He's two centimeters shorter than Hakuho and about the same weight. He moves well and should be a mainstay in this division for the years to come. The second thing he has going for him are his looks. The media has caught on that he is a handsome devil, and they are using that angle to try and hype this guy up. I'm completely okay with that too because Japan needs a young guy with some personality to latch onto in order to help bring sumo back towards the mainstream. Okinoumi has the looks and the personality (contrast that with Goeido who is as bland as a saltine sans salt), so Okinoumi's success atop the dohyo could do wonders for sumo. We'll keep an eye on this guy for sure.

And speaking of irony, Okinoumi's counterpart is Takamisakari, another guy immensely popular for the wrong reasons. I read where Takamisakari has a banged-up knee, which explains his inability to counter well at he Hatsu basho. We'll see how he reacts in Haru, but there isn't a rikishi ranked below him who can give him serious trouble. The key for Takamisakari is winning 6. Winning five means he's demoted to Juryo, so I'm sure the Association will accommodate there. If the Robocop is indeed injured, let's give him seven wins.

M13 Tokitenku has come to the point where it's no longer a given if he drops way low in the ranks. He should be fine since there ain't a whole lotta pop below him, but I don't see him exactly smiting the competition at this level. 8-9 uneventful wins. Across the aisle is our second newcomer, Tokusegawa. I have never seen this guy fight, but he is yet another Mongolian, and one of the bigger ones at that. The media has given him no hype prior to the basho, which I'm fine with. If dude can't communicate well in Japanese, you can't expect the media to break their backs trying to hype someone the population can't relate to. Just judging by his size and his relatively quick jump from Juryo to Makuuchi (and his blood), I think this guy will end up a serious player, but let me watch him for five days and then comment on day 6.

M14 Kokkai constantly finds himself lower and lower with each passing season, and the problem with the white knight is that his style has become completely undefined. He's not a tsuppari guy anymore (remember the wingspan tsuppari?) nor is he a belt guy, something he had brief success with a few years ago. This continued confusion is gonna continue until he finds himself in Juryo. Maybe Gorgeous Georgian can pull out eight wins, but no more than that. Nothing really to add about counterpart Tamanoshima.  A former solid Sekiwake, he is just getting too old. I like him to win eight.

Our final rookie is M15 Sagatsukasa, the second guy ever to reach the division behind Toyonoshima who didn't fulfill the physical requirements to enter sumo which call for height of at least 167 cm and weight of 75 kg. I've never seen this guy fight, but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he isn't better than Toyonoshima or Tosayutaka, so I expect him to constantly ride that elevator between Juryo and the lower Makuuchi ranks for the next few years. 5-6 wins. Counterpart Mokonami has run of room with which to get his shat together. He's too smart not to realize the repercu$$ion$ of falling to Juryo. Watch for him to win nine or so.

M16 Kasugao used to be a legitimate yotsu fighter, but he's completely sold out to the tachi-ai henka in order to keep that constant paycheck coming in. In my opinion, the Sumo Association should try and deal with those sorts or problems rather than try and regulate how many top-notch rikishi (i.e. foreigners) they're going to allow into sumo. Watch for Momma Kas to finagle his kachi-koshi.

And last but NOT least in this case is Bushuyama, a completely worthless rikishi when he first entered the division, but one who rode the Sumotalk karma when he returned to Makuuchi five basho ago allowing us to continue our childish jokes focused on his big boobs for nearly a year! I implore the sumo gods to have mercy on us after the loss of Asashoryu and at least keep Bushuyama around. Eight wins and our prayers are answered.

A new era in sumo begins now, and here are my predictions for the first basho:

Yusho: Hakuho 14-1
Shukunsho: none
Kantosho: Okinoumi
Ginosho: Kisenosato