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2016 Natsu Pre-basho Report
In
the olden days, I'd always focus my pre-basho reports on two aspects heading
into a tournament: 1) movement on the new banzuke, and 2) pre-basho keiko
reports. I would then cover most of the rikishi based on that information and
formulate a prediction on how I thought they would fare at the upcoming
tournament. These days, however, the banzuke is not a true measurement of a
rikishi's abilities, and you can't even believe everything you're reading in the
keiko reports, and so my focus now is strictly the current headlines and how I
believe they fit in with the current narrative being spun in the Japanese media
and played out atop the dohyo.
When it comes to the banzuke, you need look no further than the Ozeki ranks,
which shape up like this in May:
Kisenosato
Goeido
Kotoshogiku
Terunofuji
Really? Terunofuji is the least of the Ozeki?
As for yaocho in keiko reports, just read about the Soken general keiko session
held a week prior to the start of the tournament where the dominant headline
was, "Kisenosato displays the presence of a Yokozuna."
I really think the best way to prepare for a new tournament is to read my
post-basho report from the last tournament because that will explain in depth
how we got to our present banzuke and state of sumo in general.
As I am wont to do of late, before we get to a discussion of the prominent
rikishi, I'll begin with a compelling headline that I saw in between basho. The
headline itself read, "What will become of the sansho?" with the sub header
"members of the judging department give their views." This article was featured
in the Sponichi Annex newsie dated May 4th, and the gist of the article focused
on the dearth of Ginosho (Technical Merit) awarded at recent basho. And when I
say recent basho, they went back 20 tournaments and found that the Ginosho was
awarded only five times in the last 20 tournaments.
By way of review, there are three types of sansho, or special prizes, awarded to
rikishi ranked Sekiwake or lower as follows:
The Kantosho, or Fighting Spirit prize, awarded to rikishi who win in double
digits and cause a spark at the basho
The Shukunsho, or Outstanding Performance prize, awarded to rikishi who
kachi-koshi and beat at least one Yokozuna
The Ginosho, or Technical Merit prize, awarded to rikishi who kachi-koshi and
display excellent sumo technique
As mentioned, this article focused on the lack of Technical Merit prizes
awarded, which suggests that the overall sumo technique has been lacking the
last 20 basho. And sheesh, what's gotten into the Sponichi Annex of late causing
them to speak the truth so much? This is the same newspaper that I quoted prior
to the Haru basho when they published the article about the fans complaining
that Hakuho lets up at the end of tournaments. It's refreshing to see a Japanese
media outlet actually address the issues surrounding sumo, and when I see such
headlines, they stand out like Kate Middleton visiting a rest home for toothless
women.
As for the recipients of those five Technical Merit awards the last 20
tournaments?
Myogiryu
Chiyotairyu
Aminishiki
Yoshikaze (x2)
Good night that is a boring list of rikishi. Furthermore, can anyone define for
me consistent technique (other than blatant pull sumo) from any of those four
rikishi? And this is the best sumo can do in 3 1/2 years? Sadly, the answer in
the current landscape of sumo is yes. Foreigners like Terunofuji (before he was
promoted to Ozeki) and Tochinoshin must look at that list and go WTF? It just
underscores that fact that sumo has been built up and sustained the last few
years on nothing but glaring yaocho in favor of the Japanese rikishi and at the
expense of the foreign rikishi.
That theme will be prevalent again at the Natsu basho, and there's really no
reason to expound beyond that. As a result, let's turn our attention to the
individual rikishi, and before I start with Yokozuna Hakuho, I should point out
one more common theme we always see in the media prior to a basho:
Articles that feature elite foreign rikishi focus on negative spin
Articles that feature Japanese rikishi focus on positive spin
As for Hakuho, here we go again with that whole left elbow thing. Why is it that
prior to every single basho the focus surrounding Hakuho is on a supposed
injured left elbow? As I've pointed out before, it never comes up during the
tournament, but this is an example of an easy negative aspect that can be spun
about the Yokozuna should he come up short at the Natsu basho.
A second negative theme centered on Hakuho just after the release of the banzuke
focused on a special meeting held by the judging committee where they discussed
the Yokozuna's recent dame-oshi and then cleaning up the tachi-ai in general.
Hakuho's name was associated with every article from the various media outlets
due to his tachi-ai henka against Harumafuji on senshuraku last basho. The
judging committee went on to say that should Hakuho continue to execute
dame-oshi, they would consider suspending him for the next basho. Whatever. It's
all so comical to me, but you have to understand that the headlines are there
solely to justify what we are seeing atop the dohyo.
And
finally, a third excuse has been paraded around the media, which was the death
of Asano Takeshi, the head of a company based in the Kansai region with ties to
the yakuza...er...a logistics company that happens to have a sumo club set up in
one of their warehouses. When Hakuho first came to Japan back in 2000, he worked
out as a scrawny 62 kilogram kid looking to be picked up by a stable. When there
were no takers, Hakuho arranged to return back to Mongolia when at the very last
minute, the Miyagino-beya came calling and decided to take a chance on the
Mongolian. To say that that changed the history of the sport is an
understatement, but Asano was a key player in hosting Hakuho while in Japan and
getting him into professional sumo. The media played up the story by splashing
photos of Hakuho lamenting the loss of Asano, but the Yokozuna is tough, and
this death will not have any bearing on his sumo or his mindset.
As is usually the case, I cannot comment on the type of sumo we'll see from
Hakuho in May. I don't see him picking up consecutive yusho, so watch for him to
drop an early bout (called tori-koboshi) and then lose to one of the Japanese
Ozeki and at least one Mongolian down the stretch leaving him at 12-3. If Hakuho
fails to take the yusho, plenty of excuses are already built in to overshadow
the actual yaocho that will really be the reason for his losses.
Any news surrounding Yokozuna Kakuryu has been sparse. He happened to be the
lucky Yokozuna who got to spar with Kisenosato at the Soken general keiko
session and of course come up on the short end of things going just 2-3 against
the Kid. Reports also have Kakuryu returning to Mongolia for a brief visit, and
then we recently found out that he's a fan of Leicester City (that's pronounced
Leh-SESS-tur for those of you not in the know), the football club that just won
the Premier League. Like Hakuho, there's no point in talking about Kakuryu's
sumo in May. We'll just have to see whom he chooses to lose against. The Kak's
got about a 35% chance to take the yusho I'd say.
Oh dear, Yokozuna Harumafuji's got a big burden on his shoulders now that could
negatively affect his sumo at the upcoming basho. He was recently selected as
the president of the rikishi-kai, or association of sumo rikishi. The newsies
went on for a few days wondering if Harumafuji was ready for the task. Gosh, I
don't know. That's such a heavy burden that it wouldn't surprise me to see him
suffer a few surprise losses this tournament...all to Japanese rikishi of
course. Like Kakuryu, I'd give Harumafuji about a 35% chance of taking the yusho
with Hakuho having about a 20% chance. That leaves 10 more percent if my figgers
are correct, and that 10% goes to either Kisenosato or Terunofuji.
Moving to the Ozeki, Kisenosato is understandably receiving the majority of the
pre-basho headlines with plenty of positive news. I already touched on his
"Yokozuna presence" at the Soken general keiko session where he bested Kakuryu
3-2 and Terunofuji 2-0 (that's how you know there's yaocho now even in keiko).
Beyond that, Kitanofuji is out singing his praises mapping out his path to
Yokozuna. The main strategy is that he can't drop any bouts early (remember that
term, tori-koboshi?), and then he must of course take the yusho. Like
Kotoshogiku last basho, I don't anticipate anyone will dare fight Kisenosato
straight up that first week, and so he'll be at the mercy of the Mongolians
throughout week 2. In several media reports, Kisenosato has been explaining how
his family is known for being late bloomers. The Ozeki turns 30 in July, so this
will be the last basho in his 20's, so there has been a bit of hullabaloo in the
funny papers about going out from his twenties with a bang. I'm not saying that
this is forecasting a Kisenosato yusho this month. What I am saying is that
should the improbable yusho occur, there are already plenty of explanations in
place that sound plausible enough to most Japanese fans.
In my case I look at it this way. Kisenosato has this huge brick wall standing
in his way in week 2 with Hakuho, Kakuryu, Harumafuji, and Terunofuji. He could
fight that foursome 25 times, and maybe he'd come outta the fray with a 1-99
record. Maybe. And that doesn't even factor in guys like Aoiyama, Ichinojo,
Takarafuji, Kaisei, etc. who are waiting for him in week 1. When you take just
those eight guys, Kisenosato can't hold a one of 'em's jock, and yet, he's
likely going 6-2 against the lot. After Kotoshogiku took that yusho in January,
I stated that the NSK would have to orchestrate something similar again in order
to make Kotoshogiku's accomplishment more plausible, and for some reason I get
the sense that having Kisenosato enter this tournament as a legitimate Yokozuna
candidate in the eyes of the Japanese people is sufficient, and so that's why I
tout his yusho chances at around 10%. I don't expect it to happen this basho,
and there is absolutely no way in hell this guy can ever take a legitimate
yusho. But...it wouldn't surprise me if they orchestrated yet another, this time
for the Kiddie.
Next up in the pecking order is Goeido, who should fall back to his usual
red-headed stepchild status now that we're not in Osaka. I'm not even going to
waste my time on this dude, and apparently the media feels the same way since
I've read zero headlines about him prior to the basho. Give him the usual eight
canned wins.
As for Kotoshogiku, I did read where he spent a morning sparring with
Kisenosato. Dayum, that must have been some sweet keiko!! I'm still waiting for
the Ozeki to employ all of those tactics he learned by watching the Mongolians.
You know...those tactics that he used in January to propel him to the yusho?
Tactics like...um...tactics such as...er...ah screw it!