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2015 Nagoya Post-basho Report

The Nagoya tournament was such a telling basho in terms of just how wide the gaps are between Hakuho and his fellow Mongolians and then the Mongolians not named Hakuho and the Japanese rikishi. The surprise story at least through the first 12 days or so was Sekiwake Tochiohzan, a rikishi who I maintain is the best Japan has right now. Tochiohzan finished 10-5, but those two wins over the Yokozuna were complete yaocho, so in reality, we witnessed an 8-7 performance from Japan's best.

Contrast that now with the three active Mongolians among the elite ranks, and you can see that none of them lost legitimately to anyone else besides themselves.

Hakuho's loss to Tochiohzan was a complete gift. Just consider...Tochiohzan supposedly defeated both Yokozuna on consecutive days, and a rikishi who is good enough to do that legitimately does not finish 1-4 the last five days losing to Goeido, Okinoumi, Kaisei, and Takekaze. Takekaze!! So, Hakuho coulda easily gone 15-0, a feat that I submit he could be accomplishing five out of every six basho if he really wanted.

As for Kakuryu, he lost to Hakuho, Tochiohzan, and then Kisenosato. Those two losses to the Japanese rikishi were total yaocho, and so Kakuryu was fighting at a legitimate 14-1 level this basho.

Terunofuji lost to Goeido and Kotoshogiku on purpose, and then he was legitimately beaten by the two Yokozuna, so his performance was on par of a 13-2 finish.

What this means is that if you take yaocho out of the picture, the three Mongolians finish with 15, 14, and 13 wins respectively while the best Japanese rikishi outside of the group finished 8-7. Of course, now that I think about it, Komusubi Myogiryu finished 8-7 with a gift to Kisenosato, so he was really fighting at a 9-6 clip.

Still, you can see just how vast the difference is between the Mongolians and everyone else, and if all sumo was fought legitimately, fan interest would wane to the extent that even the WNBA would start feeling sorry for sumo. The reason that the man-in on-rei banners have been lowered nearly every day for every tournament this year is that enough yaocho is being used to at least give the impression that 1) there's parity in sumo, and 2) the Japanese rikishi still have a chance to yusho. Oh, and 3) Endoh is a rikishi with serious game.

When Harumafuji comes back in September, you'll now have four Mongolians who generally just don't lose to other rikishi unless they choose to do so, and the Nagoya basho was a perfect example of that.

I'm actually going to start my breakdown of the individual rikishi with Terunofuji. As previously stated, Terunofuji was fighting at a level this basho worthy of 13-2. For the first time in his Makuuchi career, he didn't suffer an upset loss or an outright fluke loss like when he had diarrhea and couldn't exert any pressure against Kaisei...for obvious reasons. To be so good in one's debut basho as an Ozeki says a lot about this kid. Early on in the basho, NHK showed a graphic of rikishi who spent the least amount of time in the sanyaku before being promoted to Ozeki. The list shakes out as follows:



2 basho: Terunofuji
3 basho: Taiho
              Yutakayama
              Miyabiyama

I can't really comment on Yutakayama's situation since it occurred back in 1963, but we all know that Taiho went on to become one of the two greatest rikishi of all time. As for Miyabiyama, I can comment on his situation. He greatly benefited from having two fellow Ozeki stable mates, a Yokozuna stablemate, and other stable mates around the jo'i enabling him to reach the Ozeki rank when he really wasn't fully prepared to do so. I don't want to knock Miyabiyama because he was a solid rikishi, and ironically when he was prepared to secure the Ozeki rank all on his own, the Association denied him promotion back in 2004 when he had 34 wins over three basho twice. Go figure.

The point I'm ultimately trying to make here is that you don't surpass a record set by Taiho unless you are a rikishi with true game that is able to put up similar results as Taiho basho in and basho out. Terunofuji has Hakuho to deal with for a few more years, and then he's got about another year before he learns how to beat Kakuryu four times a calendar year, but the Ozeki is the future of sumo.

Before we move on, let's just compare Terunofuji to Kakuryu and Harumafuji back to the point where Kakuryu was first promoted to Yokozuna. The two lesser Yokozuna have been famous for constantly finishing basho around 11-4, but they can't be criticized for that because the Japanese Ozeki can't obtain that same mark on a consistent basis even with rampant mukiryoku sumo from their opponents. The reason that Kakuryu and Harumafuji have been finishing with right around eleven wins each tournament is best seen by Terunofuji's performance in Nagoya. They usually lose to Hakuho; they usually suffer one other legitimate loss; and then they usually give up about two bouts per basho to the Ozeki or anyone else in political need of a win over an elite rikishi.

Terunofuji just stormed through Tochiohzan in week 1 when the Ozeki was trying to win; he came up short against both Yokozuna after getting beat at the tachi-ai; and then he gave up two wins to Japanese Ozeki to complete his 11-4 basho. It was a total blueprint of how Harumafuji and Kakuryu have performed in the past and how those two plus Terunofuji will likely perform for the foreseeable future. Before we move on, was anyone really surprised that Kotoshogiku would beat Terunofuji on senshuraku? It doesn't matter how that bout transpired. The Geeku could not beat Terunofuji with a henka even if he tried. Terunofuji was simply maintaining balance in the force by 1) keeping an extra Japanese dude in the Ozeki ranks, and 2) giving the impression that yes, the Japanese guys can still go toe to toe with these pesky Mongolians.

Let's move back up the ranks to Yokozuna Hakuho, who scored his 35th career yusho just breezing through the field. Once again, I really have nothing new to offer regarding the Yokozuna and his sumo that I don't always say in my daily reports. Hakuho chose to lose once this basho, and what a strategic loss that was. First, it helped a Japanese rikishi stay in the yusho hunt. Second, it helped the cause for promoting a new Japanese rikishi to the Ozeki rank. And third, it implies that the Japanese rikishi are on the same level as the Mongolians when everyone knows nothing is further from the truth. Hakuho is such a great rikishi, and the sad part is that he's rarely had any competition throughout his career. Terunofuji will change that shortly, but you have a dude here with 35 yusho who barely has to shower after his work day. Incredible! I just about peed my pants when Kane sent me the following pic that perfectly illustrates how Hakuho compares to the rest of the field:



The Incredible Hulkuho indeed!

I thoroughly enjoyed watching Yokozuna Kakuryu run through the field and display his superior technique in Nagoya. We don't always get to see this kind of sumo from him because politics trumps actual ability in the ring for these guys, but I loved watching the Kak work his way to the inside and frustrate his opponents with excellent technique. The Kak has always been capable of doing this sumo, and he may even have a great September, but there will unfortunately come a point again where he'll need to dial it back for political purposes. Like Hakuho, Kakuryu gave up that win to Tochiohzan, and then he gave one more win away to Kisenosato. Other than that, Hakuho was the only guy to get him on senshuraku resulting in his solid 12-3 performance. I know there is some talk about whether or not Kakuryu is a legitimate Yokozuna. On this banzuke...absolutely. If he was in his prime in the first half of the nineties...absolutely not. But, timing is everything...just ask Kaio, so props to the Kak on his comeback.

I realize Harumafuji withdrew after just one day of action, but there is still one comment to make about him. Lately, his sumo could be described as wild and unstable where the Yokozuna and his opponent just fly around the ring in every direction ending with a spectacular finish at the edge where both dudes just crash down in the end. The Yokozuna's opening day bout against Myogiryu was that kind of affair, and the result was an injury to the Yokozuna causing his withdrawal. We're all familiar with Harumafuji's choke-zashi tachi-ai where he goes for a vicious choke hold with one hand while latching onto the opponent's belt with the other. It's an extremely effective tachi-ai and one that is employed by the Yokozuna when he takes yusho. He rarely uses it, though, and I believe he chooses this more wild, risky brand of sumo to 1) create windows of opportunity for his opponents, and 2) give a greater sense of parity among the elite ranks. And while we're on the subject, why doesn't Hakuho consistently resort to his right inside left outer tachi-ai? He never loses with that, and no one is capable of defending it, so why doesn't he use it every day? The same answers given for Harumafuji are also applicable to Hakuho. If we had constant repetition where the Yokozuna were just kicking everyone's asses in linear fashion day after day after day, interest in sumo would wane to levels last seen...when Hakuho was kicking everyone's asses day after day after day.

Okay, I've been stalling and avoiding this like the plague, but I guess we next have to move onto the Ozeki. Kisenosato leads the way for now (Terunofuji will take over the top spot in September) finishing 10-5, a record we're used to seeing from the Kid. Kisenosato had his typical basho: he probably won three bouts on his own, and the rest were due to mukiryoku sumo. Just prior to the start of the basho, Kisenosato turned 29 and there was talk of his winning a yusho before he turns 30. I'm quite sure that more effort will be made to get him there, but he's got to do most of the work on his own. And the problem is, he just can't put himself in position to yusho even if two of the Yokozuna bow to him. All of Tochiohzan's bouts the first seven days were straight up, and he finished 6-1 losing only to Terunofuji. Kisenosato is no longer capable of doing what Tochiohzan did on his own, so in order for him to yusho, he's going to need his opponents to let up in like a dozen of his bouts. That's just way too risky, however, and so I think Kisenosato will become one of those rare Ozeki who retires without a yusho.

Goeido had the best basho of his Ozeki career although that's not saying much. I think what happens a lot is oyakata actually buy into the hype surrounding these Ozeki, and so they figure they don't need to tell their scrubs to let up, and then Goeido promptly goes out and starts 0-2. And not only did he start out 0-2, but who can forget the way he lost? I hesitate to post these pictures on that same page as Kane's Hulkuho effort out of disrespect, but look at the Ozeki's two losses the first two days to a Komusubi who started out 2-11 and a Maegashira rikishi.

 

Ozeki do not lose like that to inferior rikishi. After that 0-2 start, it was "here we go again" as Goeido's opponents started letting up lowlighted by the day 7 affair against Terunofuji. But that's the trick. That horrible 0-2 start gets completely forgotten by the Japanese fans when the Ozeki supposedly beats Terunofuji. It's due to such shenanigans that keep me from taking these guys seriously, so that 9-6 finish from Goeido was just meaningless.

Do I even need to discuss Kotoshogiku? Is there anybody who believes that he beat Tochinoshin, Aoiyama, Kaisei, Ichinojo, and Terunofuji straight up? I don't even think the Japanese fans believe it, and it's a waste of time to even discuss it. If I had to guess, they'll keep Kotoshogiku around until they can get either Tochiohzan and / or Myogiryu promoted to Ozeki.

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