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2016 Hatsu Post-basho Report

Politics in sports sucks. Whether it's the little league coach who insists that his mediocre son leads off and plays short stop or the dad with cash who buys his son's status on the high school basketball team, politics in sports ultimately lessens the quality of the product and drives fans away. The Sumo Association was absolutely in a tough spot coming into the Hatsu basho, but what ultimately transpired will only hurt the sport and turn more fans away. NHK milked the senshuraku broadcast for all it was worth, and then the news shows afterwards did the same running sentimental clips that were likely in the can for several years, I'll bet, waiting for this moment whether it came from Kisenosato or Kotoshogiku (you don't think they already have the story of Kisenosato and the death of his original stable master Naruto in the can??). That it was Kotoshogiku who ended up snapping the 10 year drought was inconsequential. The important aspect in the eyes of the Sumo Association is that they finally have the monkey off of their back. But at what cost? Sumo took a major hit this basho in its integrity department, but I'm just here to break it all down for you, so let's get to it.

When considering a rikishi for potential promotion to Yokozuna, the definition is "two consecutive yusho or two consecutive basho worthy of the yusho." Technically, a rikishi doesn't have to take a single yusho to receive promotion to Yokozuna, but when that was tried once back in the mid-80's with Futahaguro, the consequences were disastrous. So in the last three decades, the Sumo Association has always required a potential Yokozuna to yusho at least once, and then the rest of the promotion was based on a rikishi's performance and whether or not it was "worthy" of promotion. Instead of the phrase "worthy of the yusho," I want to twist that term slightly and apply it to a circumstance that we've seen in sumo the last decade, and the new term is "worthy to yusho."

From the time of Tochiazuma's final yusho in Hatsu 2006 to the 2009 Natsu basho, Asashoryu and Hakuho dominated the landscape and were the only two rikishi capable of taking the yusho on their own. In May 2009, however, a slight twist was introduced in sumo because we finally had a rikishi take the yusho not based solely on his own merit, but it was done thanks to Hakuho and Asashoryu's stepping aside. It was Harumafuji who captured his first career yusho in May 2009.  Then, in Hatsu 2012 Baruto won his first and only yusho; in Haru 2014 it was Kakuryu's turn; and most recently, Terunofuji picked up his first career yusho in May 2015. All four of these rikishi did most of the work and then received a favor or two along the way from Hakuho and perhaps another peer, so we started to see this trend in sumo where rikishi were "worthy to yusho." In other words, they could win 12 or 13 bouts legitimately, but they needed Hakuho to step out of the way in order to clinch the cup.

Everybody knew what was going on during these yusho runs, but it was largely overlooked because the rikishi capturing the championships were worthy of it, and so who cared if Hakuho took a loss here and there in order to give someone else a chance?

By the time 2011 rolled around, you could just read it in the press that the Sumo Association was getting anxious. Tochiazuma and Chiyotaikai had retired, and Kaio was barely hanging on needing serious help just to win eight bouts per basho. At the beginning of 2011, Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato were suddenly announced as candidates for Ozeki after solid basho from the Maegashira ranks, and this lowering of the standards in terms of an Ozeki run coincided with Hakuho all of a sudden dropping conspicuous bouts and lowering the yusho line to a level closer to the masses. The problem, however, was that foreign rikishi like Baruto and Kakuryu were able to capitalize on these lower standards, but the Japanese rikishi still couldn't compete.

Up until a couple of years ago, Kisenosato always seemed to hang around on the leaderboard for most of the basho, but it was clear that his sumo was never on par with a rikishi who was "worthy to yusho" despite the Mongolians giving up strategic bouts here and there. In fact, the Natsu basho of this year will mark the two-year anniversary since Kisenosato last won more than 11 bouts in a tournament. With Kisenosato floundering, Kotoshogiku beat up, and Goeido...well, Goeido, the Sumo Association reached a critical anniversary this month: the 10 year anniversary since a Japanese rikishi was last "worthy to yusho."

And so someone, somewhere made the conscious decision to redefine what it meant to be "worthy to yusho." I can't definitively say if it was just the Mongolians really being cordial or whether mandates were made at the top levels of the Association, but I'm sorry to say that a new baseline was established this basho regarding what it means to be "worthy to yusho." So what does this new baseline look like? Let's briefly review each day of Kotoshogiku's tournament to get an idea of what a rikishi now has to accomplish in order to yusho:

Day 1 Takarafuji. Takarafuji played no defense in this hidari-yotsu affair and put his knee down to the dohyo faster than Kotoshogiku could push him down via tsuki-otoshi. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 2 Ikioi. Ikioi employed no defense in this hidari-yotsu contest, and his fall as a result of a sukui-nage attempt was premeditated and unnatural. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 3 Yoshikaze. Yoshikaze abandoned moro-zashi bringing his right arm out wide and just stood straight up allowing the Ozeki to walk him back and across. Contrast this performance with Yoshikaze's bout against Toyonoshima that exemplified the Sekiwake's normal feisty will to win...or at least survive. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 4 Aminishiki. Kotoshogiku knew the pull was coming, read it, and won. Ruling: Legitimate win.

Day 5 Tochinoshin. Kotoshogiku secured moro-zashi from the tachi-ai, was proactive, and scored a good win. Shin didn't exactly persist here as he did against Shohozan, but who's counting? Ruling: Legitimate win.

Day 6 Shohozan. Shohozan came with a half henka and senseless pull, and Kotoshogiku read the move and capitalized. Ruling: Legitimate win.

Day 7 Aoiyama. Kotoshogiku meekly henka'd to his left as Aoiyama ducked his head, and when the Ozeki couldn't follow through on the pull, they hooked up in hidari-yotsu. Kotoshogiku misfired on his first tsuki-otoshi attempt, but Aoiyama employed no defense and dove exaggeratedly to the dirt when the second tsuki-otoshi came. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 8 Kisenosato. Kisenosato offered a left shove with no legs before the bout moved to hidari-yotsu. Kisenosato employed no defense while an energetic Kotoshogiku easily walked him straight back and across. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 9 Kaisei. The two hooked up in migi-yotsu...Kaisei's favored position. Kaisei's only move was to turn his hip into a ridiculous left outer grip from the Ozeki beyond the back strap of Kaisei's belt. Easy yori-kiri. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 10 Kakuryu. Hidari-yotsu from the tachi-ai where Kakuryu employed no defense. Kotoshogiku walked him back to the edge where the Yokozuna offered meaningless leg kicks forward instead of the standard tsuki-otoshi move that was wide open. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 11 Hakuho. Hakuho kept his right arm to the outside ensuring hidari-yotsu--Kotoshogiku's preferred grip--even though the Yokozuna favors migi yotsu and gets it when he wants it. Hakuho allowed the Ozeki to establish himself and then offered fake stabs at an outer grip as Kotoshogiku methodically walked the dai-Yokozuna back and out. Ruling: mukiryoku opponent.

Day 12 Harumafuji. The Yokozuna abandoned moro-zashi at the tachi-ai; he next abandoned a stifling right outer grip; and like his comrades before he him, he stood there employing no defense. Kotoshogiku felled Harumafuji with a far too easy tsuki-otoshi. Ruling: mukiryoku.

Day 13 Toyonoshima. The Ozeki can do nothing and is pulled down in mere seconds.

Day 14 Tochiohzan. Great underhand hari-te from Kotoshogiku at the tachi-ai. Tochiohzan never opened his eyes throughout, but credit the Ozeki in this one. Ruling: Legitimate sumo.

Day 15 Goeido. Coincidentally, Goeido decided to do chest to chest yotsu-zumo for the first time all basho. The two methodically hooked up in hidari-yotsu where Goeido employed no defense and waited for the eventual tsuki-otoshi shove. Ruling: Goeido was mukiryoku; however, Kotoshogiku was the superior rikishi this basho, so I'll give him the legitimate win here.

Giving Kotoshogiku the benefit of the doubt against Tochinoshin and Goeido, the final tally is as follows:

Legitimate wins: 5
Legitimate losses: 1
Mukiryoku opponents: 9

Of those 5 legitimate wins, two opponents went for lame pulls probably on purpose. Regardless of that, a new baseline has now been established on what it will take for a Japanese Ozeki to win the Makuuchi yusho. And don't be surprised if Kisenosato does the same thing in the next few basho. I actually expect it to happen because you can't stop now; it's too slippery of a slope. As I analyze sumo, I look at patterns an precedence, and a new precedent was unfortunately set in January that now has to be maintained moving forward. For example, when Goeido was promoted to Ozeki, I warned everyone that serious yaocho was used to get him there, and so serious yaocho would be needed to keep him there. Another example was the Hatsu 2011 basho when I raised suspicion that Kotoshogiku and Goeido were suddenly touted as Ozeki candidates. The two years leading up through the Hatsu 2011 basho, Hakuho suffered 8 losses total. The two years after Hatsu 2011 and that strange declaration? 25 losses. Just like that, it was a three-fold increase. And let's face it, is anyone surprised these days when Hakuho loses three bouts in a basho? No, because we've been conditioned to accept it.

Going back the last year, or six basho, Hakuho has lost 15 times...the most alarming clip of his career as a Yokozuna by far. So what's on the tail end of it? The first Japanese rikishi yusho in 10 years. It's not a coincidence, and unfortunately, sumo fans are now being conditioned to think that yes, Japanese rikishi can actually yusho again. And so that's why I think we'll witness Kisenosato's first career yusho sometime in the next year or so. At least in my era of watching sumo (roughly the last 25 years), we've gone from accepting bout fixing in order to grant rikishi kachi-koshi...to accepting bout fixing in order to give a worthy rikishi the yusho...to accepting bout fixing in order to aid in promotion to Ozeki and/or Yokozuna...to now finally accepting bout fixing to orchestrate an entire yusho.

Personally, as a sumo fan I was insulted at just how brazen the whole thing played out, and as I look back on the fortnight, my conclusion is that Kotoshogiku was touted prior to the basho to yusho. First, nobody ever went out there and just tried to kick Kotoshogiku's ass. All of the pull moves against him were lame, and he seemed to know they were all coming. Second, Kotoshogiku was never on his heels the entire tournament.  Guess how many steps Kotoshogiku took backwards the full 15 days?. A total of 2.  Both were in the Tochinoshin bout, and both were the result of Kotoshogiku's shoring up his position from the tachi-ai. The Ozeki was never forced to fight from a defensive posture once, and he was never required to execute a counter move.  Are you trying to tell me that in three consecutive bouts against the Yokozuna that the Ozeki was so good he was never forced a single step backwards...in three bouts?  Failed henka against Aoiyama?  No problem as the Bulgarian just stood there like a bump on a log.  When Kakuryu fails on a pull attempt, he inevitably loses.  When Kotoshogiku fails on a pull attempt, his opponent just stands there and let's him square back up in his favored position.  Go back and watch the full 15 days.  Nobody applies an ounce of offensive pressure to Kotoshogiku in any of his bouts.  Third and finally, he's the senpai Ozeki.

When I first started watching sumo and heard the term "Ozeki," I immediately looked it up in my trusty Sanseido dictionary, and the definition? Just one word: "champion." I suppose it made sense because I had never seen an Ozeki who didn't have at least one career yusho under his belt. Miyabiyama would become the lone exception, but he reached the rank prematurely, was demoted as fast as he was promoted, and never returned to the rank over the next 12 years. So, Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato were on track to become the sport's first Ozeki who retired from the rank or spent the prime years of their career at the rank without a yusho. Until now that is. If you look back and consider the 10 year anniversary, the current trend of lowering the bar, the new commissioner, and most importantly...the pride of the Japanese people, it all seemed to culminate in Kotoshogiku's hoisting the Emperor's Cup in the end.

Hopefully Sumotalk readers weren't surprised by the result. I spent half of my pre-basho report carefully going over the yaocho process and how I think it originates. I next reiterated that the Yokozuna were made to appear vulnerable while the Japanese Ozeki looked great. And finally, I concluded the report saying don't be surprised if a Japanese rikishi finally takes the yusho. I didn't predict it of course because I make all of my predictions assuming straight up sumo, but the spin in the media has been leading up to the ultimate breakthrough by one of the Japanese Ozeki. I really think that sumo has come down to "what positive headlines can we generate for the Japanese rikishi."

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