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2014 Haru Pre-basho Report
It's
ironic as we head into the 2014 version of the Haru basho that we won't have our
man on the street in Osaka, Clancy Kelly, around for the festivities, but
Sumotalk never has been high on any of our priority lists, and so when life
calls, you do as Hakuho says in 100% of his boring interviews and "go with the
flow" even if it means going kyujo and possibly intai for good. I'm still
holding out hope that Clancy will work ST back into his schedule at some future
point, but until then we will soldier on like a car that has just had its tires
spiked on the 405 on a sunny afternoon in southern California.
I vividly remember the first time I heard from Clancy back when I used to answer
email. It was the 2005 Osaka basho, and he emailed me to agree with some take I
had about one of the NHK English announcers, and then he referred to Roho as an
ugly sumbitch. His email was only about four sentences long, but I can analyze
more than just sumo, and I knew from that first correspondence that I wanted him
to contribute for ST. Then, when he sent me a shirtless photo in his next email,
I immediately forgot that I was ever a Kane Roberts groupie back in the day and
a true friendship was born. Actually, it was more than a friendship as Clancy is
like a brother to me, and when I say that, I don't mean that we would play a
mean game of chess together at family reunions or throw out a topic like "I
wonder where the peanut crop first originated" and then research it diligently
on our smart phones. I do mean that we would have cranked the same tunes, played
the same pick-up games, hit the same cars with snowballs, got in the same
fights, cracked the same farts, told the same jokes, and cruised for the same
chicks as I did with my three brothers. Clancy and I certainly don't agree on
everything--religion and politics in particular, but we could duke it out
intellectually in debates or physically on the tennis court and come away from
the ruckus better friends and with even more respect for each other.
I know Clancy has always been a controversial figure on the web site, and many
of the readers don't like him or his style, but he made Sumotalk so much better
if only for the fact that he made me better. It's one thing when you write for
an audience of people who watch an average of 8 hours of television a day, but
it's quite another when you start writing to impress a genius. I knew that if I
could write reports that made Clancy want to read them then I was writing
quality reports, so just knowing that he was part of the audience made me better
at what I do. I am going to miss Clancy's contributions to Sumotalk immensely,
but I know he's still reading, and so even though I'll have to start doing those
dohyo-iri at the shrines without him, his presence will continue to affect
Sumotalk for the better as long as I keep the site going. Thanks my man.
Okay, now to take a serious hit in the interesting topic department as we turn
our attention to the Haru basho. The two main storylines heading into the basho
were Endoh and his (fill in the blank) and Kakuryu's quest for Yokozuna. Then,
you had both of these dudes decide to do keiko with each other day after day
after day after day, and so the majority of the pre-basho news has focused on
these two rikishi and their lopsided keiko sessions. As bored as I was getting
with the news, there's still some points to deduct from the keiko results
between the two rikishi which turned out to be something like 63-3 in favor
Kakuryu over four days with two of those Endoh wins likely gifts from the Kak.
Before we get to those points, let's first pose the question "how does Endoh
compare to rikishi like Goeido and Kisenosato?" Let's suppose these three
rikishi fought each other 10 times each with each rikishi going all out. What
would the head-to-head records be? I would probably favor Endoh over both Goeido
and Kisenosato to the tune of 6-4 or 7-3 simply because the latter two have
horrible tachi-ai and cannot blow a rikishi off of the starting lines. Endoh's
technique and adjustments in the ring are already better than the two veterans,
and I think he could exploit both rikishi at the tachi-ai. Even if I'm
overhyping Endoh a bit, I don't see either Kisenosato nor Goeido just kicking
his ass because they don't have the sumo skills, the speed, or the size to do it
(Kisenosato's large...but he takes the least advantage of his weight of any
rikishi).
For the sake of argument, let's say all three rikishi are even and would finish
their head to head clashes against each other with 5-5 records. What does that
say about the legitimate distance between Kakuryu and Kisenosato/Goeido? Or what
about the difference between Harumafuji and Kisenosato/Goeido? Then measure the
distance between Hakuho and Harumafuji/Kakuryu. If you analyze the rikishi in
this manner, you can easily see just how vast the difference is between the
three Mongolians and the Japanese rikishi. So knowing that, you see how
Kisenosato's dominating Kakuryu 13-3 over their last 16 meetings is a complete
farce and even Kakuryu and Goeido splitting their last meetings 4-4 is a joke.
Then don't get me started on Harumafuji's 0-5 against Kisenosato the past year.
So, the first point that we learn from the marathon keiko sessions between
Kakuryu and Endoh is that there's a helluva lotta yaocho going on just to make
things appear competitive. The second thing we learn is that Kakuryu and even
Hakuho's focusing so much on Endoh pre-basho is being done because they need to
bring Endoh along as quickly as possible. You can't just throw a newbie like
Endoh up among the jo'i and expect him to shine (not even Baruto took the jo'i
by storm his first few years), but I believe the Mongolians taking Endoh under
their wings in the keiko ring is an effort to toughen him up and get him
competitive at the top of the banzuke as quickly as possible.
Finally, it will be interesting to see how the three Mongolians choose to
approach their bouts against Endoh at the hon-basho. We know from these keiko
sessions that all three of them could just kick Endoh's ass if they so choose,
so let's see what happens in the bouts. Why this is even a topic has to do with
Kakuryu and the way he's gone soft against Goeido and Kisenosato head to head at
the hon-basho. If Kakuryu was doing sumo the way he did against Endoh in the
keiko-ba, he'd likely be 15-1 against Kisenosato and 8-0 against Goeido in
recent head-to-head clashes. It is so easy for a rikishi to go mukiryoku
simply by changing his tachi-ai, keeping his hands high, and/or keeping himself
wide open. I'm not saying that's going to happen when the Mongolians fight
Endoh, but if any of the bouts appear close, you know that the Mongolian is
letting up. Two years from now they won't need to, but now? Yes.
That's
about everything I gleaned from the pre-basho keiko reports, so let's now focus
on the playuhs this basho starting with Endoh. Just after the release of the
banzuke, I saw the picture at right with the headline, "Endoh forces the
fastest reprint ever! The most spectacular accomplishment since Takahanada!"
The magazine in question is simply titled Sumo, and with Endoh on the cover, the
magazine sold out so fast it forced the Baseball Magazine company that
prints the rag to print more issues, and apparently they haven't seen demand
like this since Takahanada. The difference is that Takanohana was making waves
in the ring; Endoh is simply being forced down everyone's throats. I mean, Endoh
will be the real deal eventually unlike guys like Kisenosato and Goeido, but
he's not there yet. Furthermore, I snapped the pic below during the Hatsu basho
when they were (coincidentally) pointing out that Endoh was the leading
vote-getter in the fan balloting for the rikishi with the most fighting spirit,
but the thing about the pic that really stood out to me was the type of female
fan going gaga over Endoh.
Big difference from the Takanohana days...trust me, I was there.
As for Endoh's rank this basho, the East M1 slot, there's plenty of politics
behind that as well. Endoh is now the highest ranking Maegashira rikishi on the
banzuke, and while it's not the sanyaku, you don't want him ranked there until
he's ready. There's always much ballyhoo made about a rikishi's sanyaku debut,
so you don't want to put Endoh there prematurely only to have him go 5-10 and
deflate the balloon. Instead, put him at M1 because it's easy to hype, it
guarantees that he will fight as late in the broadcast as possible, and even if
he does go 6-9, you don't have to demote him out of the jo'i. It's a brilliant
straregy really, and the positive thing about Endoh is...he can handle all the
hype.
As for his prospects at the Haru basho, I would be a bit surprised if he manages
kachi-koshi although it's not entirely out of the question. Endoh has been
prepared this basho in the keiko ring unlike any other rikishi and besides the
Mongolian rikishi, who is his toughest competition? Who also has a crushing
tachi-ai among the jo'i that's going to give him problems? My prediction is that
Endoh pulls off a few upsets but comes up just short with six or seven wins. You
never know what's going to happen at the wild and crazy Haru basho, but Endoh
already knows that he is the shuyaku (lead role).
Next up, let's discuss Ozeki Kakuryu's prospects for the Yokozuna rank. I give
him about a 1% chance, not because he can't do it but because it would look
terrible to see Kakuryu gain the Yokozuna rank in his first try while Kisenosato
couldn't even come close in two tries over the last year. It's also the same
reason why Kakuryu's head to head against Kisenosato is so poor the last little
while. There's also no way that Kakuryu can secure the rank without taking the
yusho, and he's not going to take the yusho for political reasons. I look for
the Kak to have a nonchalant bahso and finish with about 11 wins conveniently
having his Yokozuna hopes dashed officially dashed by the Japanese rikishi.
Yokozuna Hakuho has received little run this pre-basho, but I don't see how he
doesn't take the cup yet again in Osaka. Kakuryu won't do it for reasons
previously explained, and it sounds as if Harumafuji is still dinged up a bit,
so I don't see him taking the yusho. Whose left after that? Nobody. Pencil in
Hakuho for his career 29th with a 14-1 record.
Headlines have stated that Yokozuna Harumafuji is still hampered by his left
ankle that caused him to miss the Hatsu basho, but I'm still trying to figure
out how he injured it in the first place. Not having fought for four months and
declining to spar with Kakuryu the day after the Ozeki bested him 8-2 at the
Tokitsukaze-beya, I'm going to assume that Harumafuji is not 100%, so I give him
a 10-5 record in Osaka.